AUDCAD fundamentals and technicals
Canadian benchmark rate is at 1,75% and is expected to rise gradually but is dependent on the oil prices, as growing concerns
over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations
on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and a
high interest rate is not helping. while household spending also will be dampened further. The economy is expected to grow
by 1,7% this year. CPI inflation is also expected to edge further down, while a lower canadian dollar could increase some upward pressure.
Australia´s benchmark rate is at 1,50% and is likely to stay at the level for some time. the lower level of interest rates
are showing some support for the Australian economy. After a rise in house prices
credit conditions for borrowers are tighter than before which results a fall in house prices. Some optimism for a U.S. - China trade agreement
could push the AUD higher, while slowing growth concerns can put some downside risk to the Aussie as Australia is highly dependent
on China which is the biggest export market for them. CPI inflation is expected to fall in the short term because of the low oil prices.
Australia´s economy is expected to grow with 3% through 2019 and support a strong labor market while also supporting inflation target of 2%
Growth outlook is being supported by rising business investments and higher spending on public infrastructure.
CFTC-Report is showing a bigger positions in net short on the CAD than the AUD where previously levels have shown that the aussie was heavily shorted.
the net short is slowly decreasing for AUD.
Bond spreads between CA05Y vs. AU05Y is tight with a higher yield on the CA05. This could indicate that some selling is taking place for CA05 and some buying for AU05
i expect the bond yields to widen a bit with higher yield on CA05
Looking for a break of 0.95 handle with stops below 0.94 handle.
over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations
on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and a
high interest rate is not helping. while household spending also will be dampened further. The economy is expected to grow
by 1,7% this year. CPI inflation is also expected to edge further down, while a lower canadian dollar could increase some upward pressure.
Australia´s benchmark rate is at 1,50% and is likely to stay at the level for some time. the lower level of interest rates
are showing some support for the Australian economy. After a rise in house prices
credit conditions for borrowers are tighter than before which results a fall in house prices. Some optimism for a U.S. - China trade agreement
could push the AUD higher, while slowing growth concerns can put some downside risk to the Aussie as Australia is highly dependent
on China which is the biggest export market for them. CPI inflation is expected to fall in the short term because of the low oil prices.
Australia´s economy is expected to grow with 3% through 2019 and support a strong labor market while also supporting inflation target of 2%
Growth outlook is being supported by rising business investments and higher spending on public infrastructure.
CFTC-Report is showing a bigger positions in net short on the CAD than the AUD where previously levels have shown that the aussie was heavily shorted.
the net short is slowly decreasing for AUD.
Bond spreads between CA05Y vs. AU05Y is tight with a higher yield on the CA05. This could indicate that some selling is taking place for CA05 and some buying for AU05
i expect the bond yields to widen a bit with higher yield on CA05
Looking for a break of 0.95 handle with stops below 0.94 handle.