Lately I was again revisiting the strange notion how much earlier this cycle appears to be than the previous one.
We were already up to 50-60k by early this year, values which I thought we wouldn't reach until late 2021.
But if we look at the historical trends, the cycle duration was increasing and not decreasing. If that would continue, then the real ATH should be somewhere in mid 2023. So how would this fit with the current high at 65k?
Well, what if this rally to 65k is similar to the one from the low in 2018 at 3100 up to 14k?
This would mean that this first pump here, same as in 2018/19 came too soon and was far too agressive.
In 2019, this lead to a very very long corrective structure, because we just rose too fast, too soon.
A similar situation could occur again, this is a scenario we should not entirely dismiss.
Especially since everyone expects the rally to resume soon. It would come as a great surprise to many if we now correct for more than a year in a long drawn out sideways movement with a low maybe around 20-30k.
Of course I don't really like this scenario any more than you would, because this means we'd have to wait longer for the top, but it is not something we should rule out, just because we hate it.
Accordingly of course, the altcoins will then at some point also follow BTC and go into a long sideways/decline until mid 2022.
This is definitely something which I will keep in mind when cashing out the profits from altcoins such as XRP. It might make sense to already cash out a percentage of the gains in the next 1-2 months, in case such a scenario develops.
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No, it's not Elon's tweets that sent bitcoin dumping. It's BTC's weakness which we have been observing for weeks now: Declining volume, and strong bearish divergences on the RSI on weekly and 3d timeframe.
A strong bitcoin would have just ignored the news that Tesla won't accept bitcoin any more.
I think what is really happening, is that we might get a similar situation as in 2019:
A long drawn out sideways, with a shakeout and then off it goes to 300k, but the cycle duration might have increased after all, so that we see the ATH in late 2022.
That would fit the lengthening cycle theory.
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I should add though, that I don't think that this scenario is very likely.
I would put the odds at maybe 30%.
The more likely one is imho, that we resume the bullrun in the next weeks and then 100k+ towards the end of the year.
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Turns out, this is quite an accurate model until now. Let's see for how long, though :)
Could be right but I personally don't think so. What I have learned after several bull markets. It's very difficult to hodl through a bull market precisely because there are so many calling the top all the time which makes it difficult if you don't have a set plan. Before this bull market began I told myself I would follow my own plan and not listen to all the top callers. So I will hodl for at least 4 more months (which was my original plan, hodl to September)
SebastianofMoon
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@Johnsdad, Very good, it is very smart not to listen to top callers, including me, however I am not really calling the top, I've learned from bitcoin never to call anything prematurely. I was just trying to show a possibility of what could happen, and what we shouldn't discount.
Yes, always follow your own plan, I'd say that is the best strategy in this crazy market.
xomb_00
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agree but why no 100k before huge corrction?
SebastianofMoon
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@xomb_00, Because too many people expect that :) But in the end nobody knows, that's the beauty of it, hehe!
traderview2
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This is an amazing analysis! I love how you say too many people expect that. This is my idea which will tell alot-
SDlektric
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@traderview2, Does this mean it could happen like today?!
CrashWhen
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Really interesting, wouldn't be surprised if this did happen. Bitcoin looks extremely dumpy, almost resembles start of 2018. Sharp flash crash, deadcat bounce, ETH putting in ATH, we all knew what happened after that. We never really had volume after blowing past 42k. Volume mainly picks up when bitcoin gets rejected. Looking for sharp increases in volume if and when bitcoin gets rejected either at 58k or 61k. Also psychologically speaking, very few people predicted bitcoin was going to go on an insane bull run rally past bull runs. Today, almost everyone expects bitcoin to hit six digits+ within the next few months.
SebastianofMoon
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@realisticDiamo79435, Very nicely said ! Yes, it also worries me that really everyone expects bitcoin to go 6 digits in the next few months. It makes me a bit scared tbh, and one thing which is always good in this market, is to keep an open mind for possibilites which we don't like so much. Also, always be prepared for some scenarios that most people do not call, or do not wish to happen. And this would be such a scenario.
Therefore we should also act accordingly and plan our sell strategy accordingly.
It will be highly interesting what BTC will do in the next months, that is the only thing we can be sure of :)
mvogel13
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I believe this...i think btcd will go like they say to 35% and that supercycle theory will be right... everybody will be caught off guard again.. any scenario is possible... THANK YOU as always!
CrazyHorse1788
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Still a valid analysis over 2 months on. Nice One!