As we anticipate the bull market returning, we are quickly put back in our place by the bears. Further declines are more daunting than ever at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty in cryptocurrency right now.
I'd like to present a simplistic piece of analysis on bitcoin, I'm sure the novice technical analyst will be able to benefit from this post. Today I'm on the weekly chart using a logarithmic scale which displays prices based on percentage increase or decrease.
I've based my analysis off several of my previous ideas, I've done a ton of research on bitcoin from a technical aspect and measured every individual cycle from minor, intermediate and major timeframes. This can be found in my previous idea "" and ""
I do appreciate constructive comments, share your own analysis whether that be technical or fundamental.
Let's dive into today's analysis. Straight off the bat we can see throughout the first major cycle the overall increase was roughly 52,000% (Not mentioned on the chart, this is highlighted in other analysis mentioned above) and the decrease was 87% which lasted 413 days.
This was broken up by two main intermediate cycles measuring a decline of 81% and 82%.
In the current market cycle, the increase measured at 10,000% or 13,000% (depending on which low you are measuring from in 2015) and the decrease still stands at an overall 70% from $20,000 to $5,900. Price is currently trading above this level at $6,460 which is my primary concern, the daily support trendline has been lost and further downside is likely.
Taking a look at the daily chart below the expected overall decline is 80% based upon the weekly support trendline and key daily zone.
At this point in time, a recovery is more than possible. I will be focusing on the 1h, 4h and daily timeframes to predict where price is likely to move next.
If price breaks the low at $5,900 we will see further downside.
On the 12h chart below I have highlighted the structure I will be focusing on to capitalise on the drop, this is just below 5k.
Safe trading everyone!
Комментарий
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Quick update on the 1h chart on what I see happening with bitcoin.
Price is still respecting the descending, even though we experienced a break below near $6,000.
Paying attention to minor support at the moment, expecting another move up during the week.
Price completed the 1 to 1 measured move on the 1h chart, confirmed the 2.24 projection before the reversal... The first TP of the move aligns with the descending channel resistance, expecting a short-term decline followed by a move towards $7,000 this week.
Ah it's comforting to see this! Thought I was way off the mark back in April when things were bullish for a moment (second guessing myself because I was expecting capitulation and price was still too volatile for a new bull run). Also exploring the idea of fib timezones, what are your thoughts? The downtrend from the ATH appears to be catching the swings fairly well
That 2013 fractal (with your green arrows) is special. It is also repeated in 2016.
RealMcafee
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@barclayjames, and we will probably see it again in 2020 ;)
FritzWagner
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Thanks, really good work, i do not agree.
pepper_nax
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Yes, I agree.
Peymana71
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I agree with this and said this in my last btc realtime.look at my new BTC Realtime with focus on short time frames and waves.
VikingPirate
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I have noticed that this wave of rising is much less impressive than the former wave that happened years ago.Could it mean that this time the correction will be far more serious than last correction happened years ago
nxm
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I have been using this weekly logaritmic chart since a long time and I think the odds greatly favor the possibility that BTC will go and test the long term support line which however can be construed also as channel, with the top line meeting current trend between 4950-5250 $ and lower parallel line meeting it around 3800-4000 $. Lack of sizeable selling pressure in the last downward moments makes me thing the upper line will hold, but it's possible that once we will be at that level, selling pressure will materialize and drag us to test the lower support. I appreciate your analysis Lewis but sometimes I feel you overcomplicate things and loose yourself in maths ;)