Bitcoin BEARS vs. BULLS

8 мар. 2018 г.

-- Prolog --
Bitcoin dropped hard in the last two days. Some reasons might have been a.e. the "Binance API hack", MtGOX trustee dumps lots of Bitcoin, SEC Statements about regulation (kind of a bullish thing in my opinion but.. nevermind...) and so on.
Anyways, it broke through the top of the downtrend and this showed a possible reversal of the bigger trend. There were two main patterns drawn on many TA's in the last days, an ascending triangle and an inverted head and shoulders.
The ascending triangle pattern got rekt and is not valid anymore. The iH&S is still intact (see LS, Head, RS), as long as the supports mentioned below hold.

-- Current Supports --
Today Bitcoin dropped on some very important support levels @ around 9k, then it bounced a little and at time of writing it's trading at around 9350.
Here is a list of all the important supports at around 9k:
- top of downtrend (retesting as support after breakout)
- top of old channel (retesting as support after breakout)
- support of LS (Left Shoulder of iH&S)
- EMA200 (red line / exponential moving average)
(- also it was the bottom of the red ichimoku cloud - not shown here for better overview)

-- Prediction --
I expect Bitcoin to go either up or down.. (•‿•)
BUT -> these are the conditions that have to apply to trigger either the bearish or bullish market I drew in this TA:

BULL scenario trigger:
& breakthrough of iH&S neckline (@ around 11.8k)
& breakthrough of psychological resistance @ 12k

BEAR scenario trigger:
& falling below 9k (support of LS)
&/OR falling back below top of downtrend

-- Glossary --
iH&S = Inverted Head and Shoulders
LS = Left Shoulder
RS = Right Shoulder

I will update this idea if I consider it necessary. Feel free to ask questions or give inputs in the comment section :)
cheers

9 мар. 2018 г.

Заметка

BEAR scenario triggered

9 мар. 2018 г.

Заметка

Retest of double top @ around 9350 possible before we go further down.

9 мар. 2018 г.

Заметка

And here we go with the retest of the double top (neckline) @ 9300 already. Let's see if this is our new resistance just before the drop goes further (what I expect).

11 мар. 2018 г.

Заметка

newsbtc.com/2018/03/11/bitcoin-price-will-likely-surge-as-mt-gox-sell-off-paused-until-september/

14 мар. 2018 г.

Заметка

And there we go, 8k already

30 мар. 2018 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

The trigger conditions for the BEAR scenario (red) were already met 21 days ago. (Comment 2 - Mar 9)
In the past hours Bitcoin dropped down to the expected target, the bottom of the old uptrend channel.
Small uptrend might follow now but we'll most likely stay in the big downtrend.