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Overall, we remain bullish for BTC long-term (fundamentally) and fairly bearish for the coming 2 months ahead. As we’ve mentioned multiple times, a healthy correction is necessary for BTC to make an ATH. For the shorter-term trading, we are eyeing long opportunities at the bottom of the channel.
Weekly: 1. Repeating July to September 2019 downward channel development (many triangle upward break out voice back then as well) 2. RSI kept rejecting bear range resistance (around 60)
Daily: 1. Failing EMAs, and lack of strength. (In a bullish trend, price often rejects EMA fairly quickly) 2. Downward channel 3. RSI's in a bearish trend beneath its MAs and key resistance
4HR: 1. RSI hidden bearish divergence forming 2. BTC RSI has a habit of visiting below 30-35 range twice – wait for bullish divergence for the long side
Major drops / rises are profitable for whales. If retails are on the same side, there are more traders splitting the profit, and the profit taking will also hinder further price move to trigger liquidations. Why we often see bull/bear traps before major price moves is because these are effective methods to shake out “profit-splitters”. As a result, a major drop is likely to be initiated from around 9.4k rather than the current price level. And if we go to the downside from here, the price is likely to be range bound again for the coming week.
Are you bullish or bearish on BTC? Do you agree with our analysis? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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Why we think institutional accumulation does not mean BTC breaking out of the current resistances to the upside.
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short entry moved up to 9.5k-9.6k. Short sentiment not lured to upside yet. Another push upward.
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A short-term short is upon us as we are finishing a 5 motive wave structure to the upside.
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Both bullish and bearish Elliot wave counts (zoomed out):
@CryptoCheck-, this is a very interesting comparison.
I think similar patterns could be spotted on other assets as well as an asset expands to a more eruptive cycle.
However, I do think a longer timeframe MA retrace is still needed for BTC short-term.
On the Amazon chart, the eruptive upward momentum happened after a MA retrace too.
Or do you think the retrace is unnecessary?
The_New_Disciple
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Keep up the hard work, killing it brother
Donajor8
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How long u been trading
luminaryfi
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Excellent job with the commentary. I have some BTC, but pretty naive about trading it. Thanks!
PolarHusk
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nice idea, thanks for sharing
DragonCaptain
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Great overview!
Matthew_Spositi
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Excellent analysis! I agree though, long term I’m bullish on bitcoin, but short term I’m bearish. Keep up the good work!