It appears that we are in a new phase for bitcoin and crypto. The volume on exchanges is at almost a new low, and it looks like there is quite a bit of resistance from bullish people refusing to sell for such low prices. At least that is how I personally feel as a holder.
I would like to use this post to list possible catalysts that can increase the volume and price of bitcoin, so here goes:
1. US elections - If democrats win that will create stagnancy in the US political system a beneficial thing for bitcoin (the election is coming up in a few more days) 2. Larger and more effective stock market and credit crashes in world markets - Ray Dalio has said that a recession will come in the next 1.5 years (he said 2 years in march) youtube.com/watch?v=5C43i3yclec Bitcoin was created in the depths of the 2007 world crash, and world instability is a major support of bitcoin and crypto. 3. Brexit hard exit - Brexit is not being prepared for properly by Britain, and I almost guarantee you Brexit hard exit will be the catalyst for MANY things, not just an increase in bitcoin. Brexit is happening next year (I believe in December) 4. Opening up simple investment in bitcoin for large investment firms such as Fidelity and other investment firms. 5. Possible Italy/greece default situation (this one can come randomly, but at this point EU monetary policy is held together with duct tape and cum lol)
These are the ones that come to mind initially. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE! if you have any other catalyst ideas post a comment. I would like to start a discussion :D
Like this idea if you find it interesting por favor ;)
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This BTC chart is overlaid with S&P + NASDAQ performance. 400% up vs 24% and 10% over a year and a half lol
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check out @briskvoice's short analysis. I use it to help me know when to make small sells and when to hold ;)
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"When all your judgements are based on your own wisdom, you tend towards selfishness and fail by straying from the right path." - Yamamoto Tsunetomo
We have to work together people for all our benefit :)
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When I looked at this percentage growth chart, it looks to me like the price is bouncing like a basketball. There is a very clear floor at 400%. If you drop a basketball from 20ft it will bounce 8 times depending on what you count as a bounce we have bounced 7-9 times.
--If the Democrats take the House I think the markets are staring down the barrel of a shotgun. Dems will obstruct future market growth because they have made their intentions known!
--The yield curve is flattening and portends a recession. If it inverts it could be as bad as 2008. If cryptos can stabilize they can be considered a safe haven for the younger generation instead of gold. I like the limited volatility we are seeing now. It lends credibility to crypto's and gets investor attention. I am afraid there are too many addicted to the volatility and have lost a lot of money. Soon they will be shaken free and big money can come pouring into crypto. Modern-day consumer adoption of Bitcoin and other crypto's need to happen on a larger scale to justify the next great price movement north. Scarcity is a good thing, but fungibility is a necessary evil of crypto's future. We can debate fungibility with respect to bitcoin, but in the end, we would have to agree that all the requirements of any crypto have not been met to be considered a currency until I can go to the local grocery store and buy food with my crypto of choice.
--Brexit is necessary for the sovereignty of Britain. I think everything in Europe was going along fine until, "The Great Migration", which brings with it more change than a country can handle. A major shift in demographics in any country is hard enough let alone being tied to a union of nations who desire that country to follow the same laws. Some laws are in the better interest of one country than another. But it's really control of the banking system that is scary. To make laws around a union of nations will not work in this political and social environment. The EU is proving to be a failed experiment. as proof, I would challenge anyone to look at the debt load some of these countries are saddled with. If Germany were to leave the EU, there would be no more EU. With the rise in populism worldwide as a result of the Great Migration, countries are retreating to nationalism. They are trying to protect their culture, roots, and ancestry, and most importantly their sovereignty. The younger generation is savvy to this change and what it means to the promises governments have made to them in terms of Social Benefits and state-sponsored retirement programs. The young people know these benefits will not be around when they reach retirement age, so they seek an alternative way to save and invest. Bitcoin will meet the needs of those people (IMHO). And it is there you will find the rewards people speak of today, "bitcoin could go to a million dollars." The young have no use for gold, it's just a shiny yellow metal.
--Italy and Greece have been spending like drunken sailors for over 200 years. Now that they owe the EU so much money they threaten to exit. They don't even have the ability to print their own money anymore. This bad marriage will continue until another Socialist dictator is voted into power.
--I'm not political in the slightest (I think all politicians are the same), but my portfolio is praying for the democrats to win lololol
-- It could be worse than 2008, quantitative easing is not a trick that can be pulled off many times, if they try to do it again it could result in MASSIVE inflation. The good thing is bitcoin and crypto are very inflation proof ;)
-- I would say don't discount bitcoin's ability to surprise volatility-wise, it has taken sleeping giant form many times, but it always wakes up quickly and strongly. I do think it is fantastic that we have lost so many weak hands over this year. It feels primed and ready to go!
-- It is interesting that you brought up fungibility. Personally I don't see bitcoin as needing to be eminently fungible. Other coins like XRP yes, that will need to be very fungible, but bitcoin I see that as safe money storage more than anything else. Buying a bitcoin is like buying shares in the cryptocurrency company. I would use bitcoin to buy large items (downpayment for a car/house etc), but I would never use it to buy a bottle of water and a banana.
--The yield curve is flattening and portends a recession. If it inverts it could be as bad as 2008. If cryptos can stabilize they can be considered a safe haven for the younger generation instead of gold. I like the limited volatility we are seeing now. It lends credibility to crypto's and gets investor attention. I am afraid there are too many addicted to the volatility and have lost a lot of money. Soon they will be shaken free and big money can come pouring into crypto. Modern-day consumer adoption of Bitcoin and other crypto's need to happen on a larger scale to justify the next great price movement north. Scarcity is a good thing, but fungibility is a necessary evil of crypto's future. We can debate fungibility with respect to bitcoin, but in the end, we would have to agree that all the requirements of any crypto have not been met to be considered a currency until I can go to the local grocery store and buy food with my crypto of choice.
--Brexit is necessary for the sovereignty of Britain. I think everything in Europe was going along fine until, "The Great Migration", which brings with it more change than a country can handle. A major shift in demographics in any country is hard enough let alone being tied to a union of nations who desire that country to follow the same laws. Some laws are in the better interest of one country than another. But it's really control of the banking system that is scary. To make laws around a union of nations will not work in this political and social environment. The EU is proving to be a failed experiment. as proof, I would challenge anyone to look at the debt load some of these countries are saddled with. If Germany were to leave the EU, there would be no more EU. With the rise in populism worldwide as a result of the Great Migration, countries are retreating to nationalism. They are trying to protect their culture, roots, and ancestry, and most importantly their sovereignty. The younger generation is savvy to this change and what it means to the promises governments have made to them in terms of Social Benefits and state-sponsored retirement programs. The young people know these benefits will not be around when they reach retirement age, so they seek an alternative way to save and invest. Bitcoin will meet the needs of those people (IMHO). And it is there you will find the rewards people speak of today, "bitcoin could go to a million dollars." The young have no use for gold, it's just a shiny yellow metal.
--Italy and Greece have been spending like drunken sailors for over 200 years. Now that they owe the EU so much money they threaten to exit. They don't even have the ability to print their own money anymore. This bad marriage will continue until another Socialist dictator is voted into power.
Interesting conversation!