Bitcoin last night hit a critical level of resistance at $4480 which happens to be the right side of a crown on the daily charts. The next FIB abcd move down from the crown looks like its in play and we may see a re-test of the $4480 resistance level today. If it does re-test the $4480 it MUST close with a strong bullish candle to be confirmation of its next leg up to around the $6000. At this stage though I don't see that happening because the crown reversal pattern, structurally looks strong.
Just a explaination the rules for a crown reversal for those not familiar with it. 1. The inner up trend line is broken - which we saw happen on September 8 2017 2. The market returns to test a previous level of support which was the $2900 - $3000 level which happened on the September 15 2017 3. Find the B of up ABCD level which is $4480 which is the left tip of the crown reversal and also gives us an indication of where the right side of the crown will form. This is where we are now.
So once we get confirmation, which should be today - I expect the next abcd move which I have labeled on the chart to be down to $2500 - 2600USD which also happens to be a major outer trend line. I have also used purple arrows to show the anticipated move down.
Refer to my previous analysis' as validation of this method of analysis.
Thanks for your analisys.
What do you think about today's action?
nss1987
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I think, you're right!
thefurleyghost
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There should be a rule that your open trades must be consistent with the trading ideas posted here.
So are you actually short BTC right now with a target of 2600?
Nica521
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@thefurleyghost, No i dont have a leveraged account to short..but if i did my exit would be something like 2650.
I do have skin in the game as im holding bitcoin and a bunch of others like bitcoin cash.
nole_89
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There is one scenario where this could happen. That would be if investors see an unending string of bitcoin forks into the forseable future. This may be an inherent flaw with a decentralized public block chain where a group of miners can just fork off the chain when they feel like it.
JaySong84
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By the way, I do think you could draw your trend lines a bit more accurately/using slightly altered method and also take the volatility a bit more into consideration when deciding on the time frame it will take to hit the points you are mentioning. I am sure there's an advanced mathematical way of calculating this as well but I am still a noob so I do not know which to look at yet.
Trader6127
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@JaySong84, the TA you will find on this site is more of an art. Try Wyckoff method if you want to crunch numbers, otherwise you'll have to subscribe to expensive services that have proprietary tech. Good luck.
Nica521
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@JaySong84, I believe my trendlines have drawn correctly. The rule taught to me by a well respected forex guru is this...for an up trend you start at the lowest low, pull it far to the right and the lift the line until it touches the bottom of next low.
Trendlines never cross through or over candles wicks or bodies!!
Nica521
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@Nica521, just tp clarify...the purple lines are not trend line vut showing the expected wave movement
JaySong84
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Agree on pretty much everything minus a wishful thinking/hope/slight chance that it reaches the lower end of the next resistant point down to around 2250-2000. Really appreciate your work - it matches with the ideologies I've created in the past month or two after losing a decent amount of money going into investment without any idea of trading. I would be really interested to have a convo with you sometime if you are up for it. Keep up the good work!
What do you think about today's action?