antipanic

#Monthly: Bitcoin, Trends and The Secret Strategy

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Биткоин / Доллар США
There wes a couple of predictions recently: we will never see Bitcoin cheaper than $ 5,000 (@tonyvays) and its price will jump to $115,000 (@dan_pantera) by August 2021.

We'll see.

Wanna show you how these numbers correlate with the chart and where are the nearest points of strength. Candles without sticks, open and close only, log-chart.

So, Trends
a. Prehistoric trend, formed by lower lows of 2013 and 2015. The lowest point on this trend for now = $1,800. Creepy.
b. Trend formed by higher high of 2013 and lower low of 2019. The lowest point on this trend = $4,700 for now. Bitcoin has already hit this trend and rebounded sharply. I bought from this zone, like many others, it was an excellent price.
c1. Current global downtrend, along the edge of which the price has been creeping since June 2019. It was formed by highs of 2017 and 2019. The highest point on this trend = $9,300. I closed my long here on April 29, excellent move. Wait now.
c2. Projection of the c1 trendline, forming a descending channel , the lowest point of which = $2,800 for now. Trend is formed by bottoms of September 2017 and January 2019.
d1. Candle close level 2017 = $13,770.
d2. Candle close level = $3,500. In fact, d1-d2 is the range of consolidation. A break downward possibly opens the gates to the hell down to $1,150 level. A break upward creates a spark for a new bullish momentum.
e. Local trend formed by nearest bottoms of 2019-2020. The lowest point on this trend = $6,700 for now.
f. Resistance line formed by the February doji in 2018 and higher high of 2019. The highest point on this line = $10,800 for now.
h1. Trendline formed by highs of 2013 and 2017. The highest point = $62,000 for now. AYS?
h2. Trend formed by extremes of 2013-2019, excluding the hysterical peak of 2017. The highest point = $15,000.
z. Trend lasted from October 2015 to November 2018. Broken. The highest point = $29,000 for now. AYKM?

And The Secret Strategy
If you're afraid of enter the market, but want to convert your holy dollars into the crypto for 3-5 years, buy now. If everything becomes (very) bad:
1. Price is $9,000, let's say you invest $150.
2. Price is $5000, invest $250 more. The average entry is $6,500.
3. Price drops to $3,000, invest $600 more, the average is $3,600.
4. Suddenly the price goes underwater to $1,500. No panic, invest again $1,000 more. The average is ~ $3,000, good price. So you invest to the promising asset $2,000 in total.

One more thing. Ok, a few...
First. The main thing is not the price you buy or sell, but the correct calculation of the position. Don't try to catch the ideal price, it doesn't exist, like a free lambo.
Second. Do not listen to those who talk about the frenzy of averaging against the trend: with proper management, you'll take your profit or breakeven.
Third. Try to average your enrty near the strongest level. Don't know how to find it? Watch the move and stand aside if price falls down less than 10%. Price squeezes by 25%-30%, you average without batting an eye.
Fourth. Watch the market when you stuck in a counter-trend trade. If forecasts go worse and risks increase try to open another trade on the trend. Hedge your position.
Fifth. Follow the trend not only for averaging. If the price goes in your direction, increase the position. Yep, worse average price, higher final profit.


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Комментарий: BTW. About trades against a trend and entry averaging.
1. Average only what is possible to. Zero is not a bottom. Say Hi to crude oil futures with negative prices in April.
2. Short is harder to average. Prices doesn't have a ceiling above.
3. Don't open high leverage trades. A loss of 50% of account will require you to earn twice as much to get to a breakeven. Loss of 80% require you to quadruple your account to get to a breakeven. Creepy. Write it down on your monitor.
4. Increase your orders while price drops (7%-13%-30%-50% of trading margin not a whole account).
5. Don't allocate 100% of your account for one trade (in the most greedy strategy leave 50% for hedging at least).

The averaging strategy does not contradict with stop-losses. Average your long-term positions only. Use stop-loss for short-term speculative trades.

The main thing: trend is your friend, try to catch it instead of disregarding it.
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Комментарии

Great job.
+1 Ответить
antipanic Mdhafezi
@Mdhafezi, thanks! 🤝
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