BTC Technicals and The Week Ahead
We have started the week with a breakout from the big parallel channel formed over the past weeks.
$64,166 is our next resistance. We'll need to see Europe continue to buy to push through.
There is a potential issues with the breakout though.
We anticipated that the CME gap would be closed before the pump. That didn't happen. We now have an open CME gap with price needing to retrace to $60,400 to close the gap.
CME gaps dont always close, but, there is a high probability that they do (around 80% close rate). Generally though the longer we go without closing - the less the chance of closing.
The CME gap close of $60,400 also seems now to be a support level on the daily chart. If we do breakdown then it looks to be a good short target
At the bottom of the daily chart TV tells us what market relevent information is dropping and when, but we need to have an idea of how to interpret this information.
This is how I see the info dropping this week potentially affecting BTC.
Today -
ISM Manufacturing PMI - This is a measure of confidence as it tells us how much businesses are planning on investing over the next month. The FED love it because its forward looking and therefore carries more weight when it comes to interest rate decisions.
Less than 50 is bullish for us as it says the economy is shrinking and therefore rates need to come down.
Forecast is 49.1 and this should be priced in.
>49.1 = Bearish
<49.1 = Bullish
Tuesday
Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Usually creates volatility but doesn't really give a directon as they are always really careful to not pump or dump the market.
JOLTs Jobs Data - This is massive as really its the buoyant job market that has stopped us getting rate cuts.
Forecast is 7.85 and agian this should be priced in.
<7.85 is bullish
>7.85 is bearish
Wednesday
Fed Meeting Minutes - Again usually is more volatility than direction. Any hint though of rate cut planning and we'll fly.
Thursday
US Stock Market Closed - Can cause crazy moves as volume is thin so its easy for Asia or Europe to move the market.
Friday
Unemployment Rate - Big market mover.
4% forecast is priced in.
>4% = Bullish
<4% = Bearish
Non-Farms Payroll - New jobs created again released with unemployment and a huge impacter on sentiment.
Forecast 180 should be priced in.
<180 = Bullish
>180 = Bearish
$64,166 is our next resistance. We'll need to see Europe continue to buy to push through.
There is a potential issues with the breakout though.
We anticipated that the CME gap would be closed before the pump. That didn't happen. We now have an open CME gap with price needing to retrace to $60,400 to close the gap.
CME gaps dont always close, but, there is a high probability that they do (around 80% close rate). Generally though the longer we go without closing - the less the chance of closing.
The CME gap close of $60,400 also seems now to be a support level on the daily chart. If we do breakdown then it looks to be a good short target
At the bottom of the daily chart TV tells us what market relevent information is dropping and when, but we need to have an idea of how to interpret this information.
This is how I see the info dropping this week potentially affecting BTC.
Today -
ISM Manufacturing PMI - This is a measure of confidence as it tells us how much businesses are planning on investing over the next month. The FED love it because its forward looking and therefore carries more weight when it comes to interest rate decisions.
Less than 50 is bullish for us as it says the economy is shrinking and therefore rates need to come down.
Forecast is 49.1 and this should be priced in.
>49.1 = Bearish
<49.1 = Bullish
Tuesday
Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Usually creates volatility but doesn't really give a directon as they are always really careful to not pump or dump the market.
JOLTs Jobs Data - This is massive as really its the buoyant job market that has stopped us getting rate cuts.
Forecast is 7.85 and agian this should be priced in.
<7.85 is bullish
>7.85 is bearish
Wednesday
Fed Meeting Minutes - Again usually is more volatility than direction. Any hint though of rate cut planning and we'll fly.
Thursday
US Stock Market Closed - Can cause crazy moves as volume is thin so its easy for Asia or Europe to move the market.
Friday
Unemployment Rate - Big market mover.
4% forecast is priced in.
>4% = Bullish
<4% = Bearish
Non-Farms Payroll - New jobs created again released with unemployment and a huge impacter on sentiment.
Forecast 180 should be priced in.
<180 = Bullish
>180 = Bearish
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