Before I begin, I want to make it clear that this is a simple price prediction based on fibs and assuming 2900 will be the bottom of this drop.
The study is based on the market cycle and Fib extensions showing BTC's love affair with 4.23 Fib.
Comparison with previous market structure's timeline
1. 1st Bullish Rally ($4 to $1150) lasted for 24 months. 2. 1st Major Downtrend lasted for 13 months 3. Consolidation/Recovery lasted for 12 months
1. 2nd Bullish Rally ($292 to $20000) lasted for 24 months too 2. Current Downtrend -> 13 months? Already been 11 months. Finish by Feb, 2019 3. Consolidation/Recovery -> 12 months? Feb 2020
Agree - the sentiment is on 80% depression and sadness. Crypto community is down 80% ( new traders ) , crypto youtubers go away or are anger because of manipulation , everyone is calling for 1k . For me this is the sentiment for bottom .. I wait next 24h for the end of the capitulation :
Bulldragon
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I would say this scenario is not possible anymore.
Why?
Ask your self. Btc is not the same as yesterday.
Mining dificulties,
Manipulators increase,
Bot traders,
Goverment pressure,
Country bans,
Social media bans.
But if we keep following the cycle,
Btc may still have a chance to go atleast near the ATH.
vjsharma89
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@vinzboylarga,
As I mentioned above.
This is a speculative post depending on previous market cycle and the 4.23 fibs
If it follows previous cycle (that's a big if), the target would be 70k in 2022.
Totaly agree .. BUT .. (there's always a but) there was one (or two) bullrun(s) previous to your first .. going from cents to 35$ (Mt.Gox era)
vjsharma89
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@Je_Buurman, Yes I noticed those while charting.
The prices at the time were so low. Would have been nearly impossible to use fibs on them properly.
Hence, didn't consider those