As mentioned in my previous analysis written 2 days ago, the expected recovery took place on a CORRECTIVE TACTICAL MOVE ONLY... and not as a strategic trend reversal yet !!!
Indeed, so far the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 50'608, worked well in rejecting its upside breakout and yesterday's price action, after having roughly reached an intraday of roughly 52'000, the closing level @ 50'627, triggered a DOJI pattern which should be seen as an additional warning signal, calling for a new downside move.
Daily picture is still showing a broad bear picture with its clear downtrend resistance line (in red) which also coincides with one on my favorite barometer indicator (Mid Bollinger Band) and last but not least with the KIjun-Sen or Base line which is currently @ 54'177 and which should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL on this daily time frame !!!: in addition, the RSI is in a broad bear trend price action too.
Only a clear sustainable breakout of 54'177 would force to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario.
Levels to watch at very carefully are the following on a daily closing basis :
R3 : 55'385 R2 : 54'177 R1 : 52'000
CURRENT LEVEL : 50'315
S1 : 49'240 S2 : 47'111 S3 : 42'000
H4 :
Watch the Mid Bollinger Band as a good barometer indicator too (bullish above and bearish below on a H4 closing basis); currently slightly above it and under selling pressure; watch the ongoing H4 closing period (s) which will give your more clues as a failure to hold above 49'830 would open the door for lower level with the focus on the next significant support level which is the Tenkan-Sen or Base Line @ 47'922. This level, on this H4 time frame should be seen as a Key pivot level too.
H1 :
Still above the clouds but already below Kijun-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Tenkan-Sen; Lagging line is currently trying to cross under Tenkan-Sen !!!
Watch the clouds and the price action of the Lagging line too.
Have a nice trading day and do not forget ; "THE TREND IS ALWAYS YOUR FRIEND" and if you fight against it, please be sure to act accordingly in protecting your tactical exposure with tight trailing stop losses !!!
Thanks a lot mate, your analysis is highly appreciated! Quick question: what about RSI? It is approaching the oversold area, should we expect an upward price move during the next days/week?
Ironman8848
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@bulloclock, a trend reversal would only take place if we see a BULLISH DIVERGENCE on RSI, meaning a lower price than the former one (in our case lower than the low seen on Dec 4th, below 42'000 and a RSI which would he higher than the level of Dec 4th @ 31.52 !!! This scenario might be coupled with a double bottom formation which also would add value for a trend reversal. Last but not least, if prices reached a level lower than the previous one and if the RSI is lower than the previous one, we would be in a bearish convergence mode, calling for lower levels. Hope it will help you. Have a great day and all the best. Have a look at my brand new website. ironman8848.com . Any feedback is welcome.
Quick question: what about RSI? It is approaching the oversold area, should we expect an upward price move during the next days/week?