Hello everyone! After a flurry of emotions on May 19, the market has now relatively calmed down. However, we will make today's idea on the hourly timeframe, since the volatility of BTC remains high. After the fatal fall of the BTCUSDT market for many deposits, we saw good price support in the range of $39,000-39,600. Yes, the bitcoin price did not stop in this range, but it began to slow down a lot. If we consider the moment of the culmination of the fall on May 19 and the rebound on the 15 minute timeframe, we see that now the price is trying to gain a foothold above the liquid range: The chart shows that there is still little strength to continue the fall, and buyers are likely to break through the trend line that sellers held from May 12.
A break of this trend line will give the BTC market a powerful growth impulse to the range of $46,000-48,000.
The critical point of this scenario is the mark of $39,000. Below it, sellers will prove their strength and form a consolidation, which is likely to break down. Therefore, today is quite an important day for determining the medium-term price movement of BTCUSD. Continued growth towards the 46-48k range is our main scenario. However, even this growth does not contradict our basic global idea: ___________________________________ We create both short-term ideas (for a local understanding of the market situation) and medium-term forecasts of price movements. Subscribe to us and get daily concise analytics!
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The sharp decline began after a false breakdown of the trend line of buyers. Sellers are not yet exhausted. Therefore, consolidation will continue. However, buyers lost their chance for a positive scenario. If buyers do not return the price within the triangle before closing the 4-hour timeframe - it will be a bad sign
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The price of BTC again tests the trend line of sellers. It will be recalled that after a false breakdown of the trend line, a powerful wave of decline began over the weekend. So now you need to be careful!
its dead man what 45 ...
it cant even go 42 it will revisit 30-35 area .
dead cat bounce
P_S_trade
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@oacen13, let's see) thank you for your opinion!
ta101970
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Put all hopes and expectations aside. Only allow the math and history to guide your vision of what is to come. The path of least resistance is downward. The true debate is how far down and for how long.
P_S_trade
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@ta101970, the path of least resistance went down on May 19. Thanks to stop orders, there are a lot of buyers, which have accumulated over 3 months of consolidation. What do you see. what is now the path of least resistance down?
ta101970
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@P_S_trade You say if it breaks the upper trend line it will gain momentum. I agree that if and only if it does break to the up side it may and only may gain momentum. Lots of people want it to go up and there's nothing wrong with that. When I look forward to the future all I can see is what my imagination tells me based on previous experience and present knowledge. I have no map for the trail downward. Apologies if my comment made it sound like I know any more than can be known from market history and the numbers as they present themselves to me from moment to moment
P_S_trade
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@ta101970, Thank you for your comment) of course, no one knows where the price will go. we share our opinion. This scenario is highly probable for us. But we are ready for an alternative scenario)
it cant even go 42 it will revisit 30-35 area .
dead cat bounce