News background and trade ideas on 26.09.2018

The highlight of the current week, if not a month in the foreign exchange market, is the announcement of the Fed's decision on the interest rate. And it's not even what the Central Bank will do (the rate will be raised). But what will it do next. Investors will be keeping an eye above all on this news today. A detailed analysis of the situation with the Fed and what to do with the dollar at one point or another, read in our today's review "The last briefing before the Fed."
Previous day has brought anything but another maximum in oil over the last four years. Nothing supernova occurred in the news background - the current vectors are being refinement (Iran, Venezuela, OPEC). Our position, despite the continuing growth, is unchanged - long-term sales for oil. Perhaps already this weekend at the OPEC meeting in Algeria, the oil market will receive an excuse for sales, and it will change the sentiment on the oil market.
The increase of oil pushes the Russian ruble up. What we think is an excellent opportunity for its sales. So those who are afraid of trading in clean oil and for whatever reason do not dare to sell it, we have an excellent alternative - the sale of the Russian ruble. The deal looks exceptionally win-win, especially in the case of the decline in oil prices.

There were not essential statistics nor today, nor yesterday. Brexit issue didn’t force either, at least because the most interesting will take place in a month when the final round of talks between Britain and EU will take place. Let us remind you, we are looking for a positive outcome so recommended benefit from pound weakness and buying it.

The only thing should be admitted from the statistic information, which was published yesterday - just an ordinary constatation that consumer USA sector is in good shape. Mainly, U.S. consumer confidence index Conference Board gained 138.4 points (which is much higher than was in forecasts. Are expected 132.1). This is no less than its maximum value over the last 18 (!) years. So dollar sellers we would recommend acted more careful. Finally, precisely the consumer sector generates up to ⅔ GDP of the USA for today. We also should admit, ahead of the announcement of the FOMC meeting’s outcome, such numbers make a strong case for aggressive rhetoric from the Fed.

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