This is my personale interpretation of this particolar market situation
Probably is ongoing the Large Trader Manipolation
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Break of minor support after retail liquidity capture
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as already say this 3° phase LG are finding market liquidity.. break out of the level and rebound (false breakout) .. how many retail traders have been oper long position .. ? many many .. and how many trading system start long trade many many
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move updare... (notice .. this is only my pesonal view of this market ....)
after this push.. the price are going down .. above breakout .. now a lot of retail trade can go in negative .... if is time for the LG they will push down hard to fit in all the long .. and capture the liquidity
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as you probably know .. the retail trader doesn't like close in loss the trade and probably they keep open the negative trade for long time shift theirs stop loss belove .. belove the nearest support area.. and probably belove the major support area ... more money for LG
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Probably many retail traders open new long position to mediate the long losing positions. In this way they increase their exposition and ruin risk The netposition of Trader is LONG.. is it crazy or not? .. and probably this will increase ... more mediation more long.. more loss
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double bottom.. and retail long increase .... and also their loss in the future
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same scheme .. push up and then sell... until their don't finished their shopping.. then will push hard
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I don't know when.. but I think that there will be a break of support area. this is my view for this pair. ..with two target
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we cannot know .. when but as alredy said the break out of support area can give a really push down of price.. in this moment we have a triple bottom so many trade are open a long trade for speculation, and also to mediate the long position lossing ... with a very huge increase of new stop loss under the bottom area (more or less 50pips down to 150) .. this can be the first strike target after break out of Istitutional. take all this stop loss to give energy to the price move ..
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following the cronical of this trade now we will see the action of LG on stop loss of retail .. their catch the stop and await that new long filled the gap created by stop loss action (retail are long so the stop open a sell position)