JD has been in an ascending parallel channel since the COVID-19 peak in March and shows no sign of slowing down. I sold an October 16 2020 62.5 Put @ 1.03 near the bottom of the channel today with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next couple months. This is one of China's biggest e-retailers and its been having a great time with extra sales due to the pandemic. Don't see any reason why that should stop anytime soon.
An alternative idea for a more aggressive trade would be to sell the $70 Put for a much larger credit. The $70 Put will be just below the bottom of the channel on the Oct 16 expiration.
20-JD-01
Opening Date: August 20, 2020
Expiration Date: October 16, 2020
DTE: 57
IV: 44%
IV Percentile: 36%
Odds of Winning: 80%
Win: > 61.47 @ Expiration
Loss: < 61.47 @ Expiration
Reg-T Margin @ Open: $720
Chart Legend
The green area represents 100% win zone.
The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
The red area is loss.
1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Сделка закрыта вручную
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Closed this out @ $0.50 on 8/25/2020. JD went parabolic, crashing upwards, moving outside of the 3 standard deviation projection. Anytime I get a chance to take a 50% profit after just a couple days in a trade, I'll do that.
Here's the final stats for this trade:
Days in Trade: 5 Credit: $53 Return on Capital 7.07% Annual Return 14563.76%
The market is correcting today and JD with it. We're getting a correction back into the 1 standard deviation area today. If JD keeps heading downwards we may this position again if we can pick up a good deal of premium. Once again, it was correct to take the 50% early exit on Aug 30th.
OptionsCoach
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Closed this out @ $0.50 on 8/25/2020. JD went parabolic, crashing upwards, moving outside of the 3 standard deviation projection. Anytime I get a chance to take a 50% profit after just a couple days in a trade, I'll do that.
Here's the final stats for this trade:
Days in Trade: 5
Credit: $53
Return on Capital 7.07%
Annual Return 14563.76%