We will need to wait a smidge bit longer for confirmation.. but I am convinced that LINK is about to make a tear of a run - very soon.
I am sharing something I normally would keep to myself due to the amount of time this analysis took me. But here you have it...
(Not financial advice - your mileage may vary. Here is what I, myself am doing)
Buy Limit: $32.00-$35.00
Stop Loss: $30.08 Take Profit (as calculated by Wykoff's point and figure formula): TP1 - 25% - $40.55 TP2 - 50% - $41.39 TP3 - 25% - HODL and see where it goes for the long term. You can do this with 50% instead of 25%.
I am excited to see where this one ends up!
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Moving my TP to 50% as of current prices. Using 40% of that to open a buy limit at $35.59 if/when it breaks trading range resistance. Buying ETH with the other 10% and moving to storage.
Very interesting. A number of alts are displaying, at a glance, a similar setup. NEO, DASH, ZEC, ETC among them. It's all the more interesting as BTC is similar, though not as obvious, and yet I expect one more leg down for BTC, though with Wyckoff you expect a low before take off, but not as low as the selling climax. If BTC is pushing down, we might expect alts to follow. But a Wyckoff accumulation pattern would suggest the bottom is already in. Do you have any thoughts on this?
cache_that_pass
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@ianrdouglas, I think it could be many factors. BTC dominance is on a see-saw right now. Institutional money shifts markets with the intentions of stoking the retailers out of their positions. I haven't been able to look at LINK, NEO, DASH, ZEC, and ETC on any macro time frames which is what really matters in the end so I can't say for sure. I would be keeping a close eye on the elementary technical indicators like open and closing prices vs their wicks. I switch over to a line chart occasionally to get a diff. perspective on the movement as a whole. More than likely the decoupling of these alts' correlation to BTC is the key factor IMO. With one catch, when BTC flash crashes... it will always have the same affect on the alts. When BTC is in accumulation or on a tear, the alts are more free to follow the underlying plays they've been building for a while.
Using old tools on new assets like crypto there's bound to be a skew. At the end of the day, I look for more than one analysis on a crypto before I go in on it. I think of everyone else and if they have 3 or 4 different setups that they may be seeing then that beats us trying to convince them that only 1 is happening. Try to see it like the smart money would.
BTC is just doing its normal correction. It might touch near 43k, but it will be so brief that it may not affect the alts at all. Or even better, provide some great buy limits for us to get in at.
@ianrdouglas, No worries. My other rules that I TRY to follow - but sometimes fail at - are: 1) stay committed to what I see with the potential of any crypto (fundamentals always rule in the long run - great projects will stay and grow). 2) Stay as much away from margin/leverage as possible (5x tops). 3) The most recent development for me.. no stop losses.
Keeping #2 in check is the way to stick to #3.
ianrdouglas
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@cache_that_pass, Agreed. Stops in this market often have to be so wide it makes them meaningless anyway. At least for the first week if you're swing trading. Agreed on leverage. If alts were not so correlated to BTC it might be a different matter. I feel these last weeks have been some of the hardest times to be trading in the market, because of so much basic uncertainty in the BTC trajectory. Small windows open for predictable moves in other coins. Then they close, and setups get recked, etc. I can't wait until this mythical decoupling. Fundamentals, I agree in part. I focus on charts. ETH, for example, is a crypto foundation. But it only has about 30% left in the tank. I hear a lot of projections for ADA. But it's at full extension already. It's done. Both are solid projects, but I expect both to eat dirt in the bear market. I'm not going there with either of them.
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@ianrdouglas, FWIW I'm with you. My GF and brother were the most recent converts to crypto and I told them to buy 50% ETH and 50% ADA. I don't have enough money to buy as much ETH as I would buy. It will be the next bitcoin, making millionaires by the end of the year. Mark my words. One of my strategies includes take profiting in ETH -> straight to long term storage. ADA moves with BTC so tightly that it might as well be BTC for all intents and purposes. Yet it has more growth potential. So those two coins are pretty much like having half bitcoin and half ethereum.
I look for patterns and take a mental note.. and after tonight I'm convinced I could quit the bullshit trading throughout the week/weekend and setup my plays on Sunday PM right when that weekly candle prints. Did you see it tonight? BTC and everything else went on a tear 1 minute after the fresh weekly posted. I used to open plays whenever and sit on them for however long I had to.. but I'm rethinking my strategy to reclaim some of my time and lose some of the stress of chart-dwelling. Even when BTC dropped 85% back in the day.. there is 1 truth only and that is that BTC will ALWAYS recover (and then some) with enough time. Losing those stop losses changes it to a test of patience - which none of us traders have. But perhaps learning some will add some stability to our markets and make us some money in the meantime.