NIFTY LONG TERM VIEWS
Let's get it straight. There are only 2 possibilities for NIFTY 50 from here.
Both the possibilities are explained below:
Possibility 1
The chances of this possibility are high because there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the companies in NIFTY50 and the INDIAN economy. I believe the markets are deliberately brought down for big investors to swoop in at the right valuations. According to my opinion, this is the best-case scenario. Referring to the pattern indicated on the daily chart frame, The Nifty will re-test its recent lower low which is around 16770 and from there it will bounce back shifting the lower low upward and forming strong support. The NIFTY will consolidate for a major period of time before resuming its upward trend. The initial resistance is placed around 17600 levels followed by 17800 and 18000 levels. A close above 17600, 44 EMA and 50 MA on daily charts will confirm the resumption of the upward trend.
Possibility 2
This is the absolute worst-case scenario for Indian markets. NIFTY will continue its downward movement given a trend reversal and dragging to its next major support which is placed around 16400 levels. According to my opinion, this scenario is only possible when an uncertain event unfolds where the market only knows one direction i.e., downward.
Since the OMICRON cases are rising this possibility can not be ruled out. If any case happens which will lead to slow down the economic growth or affect the business such as lock-downs, restrictions or supply-chain disruptions etc. The market will react to these uncertain events and will continue marching south.
THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY. THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS ONLY FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE, ACT WISELY.
Both the possibilities are explained below:
Possibility 1
The chances of this possibility are high because there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the companies in NIFTY50 and the INDIAN economy. I believe the markets are deliberately brought down for big investors to swoop in at the right valuations. According to my opinion, this is the best-case scenario. Referring to the pattern indicated on the daily chart frame, The Nifty will re-test its recent lower low which is around 16770 and from there it will bounce back shifting the lower low upward and forming strong support. The NIFTY will consolidate for a major period of time before resuming its upward trend. The initial resistance is placed around 17600 levels followed by 17800 and 18000 levels. A close above 17600, 44 EMA and 50 MA on daily charts will confirm the resumption of the upward trend.
Possibility 2
This is the absolute worst-case scenario for Indian markets. NIFTY will continue its downward movement given a trend reversal and dragging to its next major support which is placed around 16400 levels. According to my opinion, this scenario is only possible when an uncertain event unfolds where the market only knows one direction i.e., downward.
Since the OMICRON cases are rising this possibility can not be ruled out. If any case happens which will lead to slow down the economic growth or affect the business such as lock-downs, restrictions or supply-chain disruptions etc. The market will react to these uncertain events and will continue marching south.
THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY. THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS ONLY FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE, ACT WISELY.
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