NASDAQ - January 2023 outlook is bearish according to seasonal r
Looking through the chart from 2000 onwards, an interesting pattern has been noted and key observations are:
1. January monthly candle seem to be following a trend. Whereby once the trend is bullish, it seems to be lasting for 3 to 4 years consecutive and vice versa.. at least from 2008 onwards (see the table).
2. For example, the monthly candle closing for January 2008, 2009 & 2010 was red. The next three years candles for January (i.e 2011, 2012 & 2013) were green. The same pattern repeated in the following years. i.e (2014, 2015 & 2016 = red)
3. However from 2017, the same pattern seem to have been extended to 5 years instead of 3 previously (i.e 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 = green).
4. So, based on the above, its looking likely that Jan-2023 and 2024 will be bearish for Nasdaq (or even 2025 & 2026 if the new trend is 5 years instead of 3). hopefully not though! :(
5. Therefore, in terms of seasonal, my bias is going to be bearish for January 2023.
1. January monthly candle seem to be following a trend. Whereby once the trend is bullish, it seems to be lasting for 3 to 4 years consecutive and vice versa.. at least from 2008 onwards (see the table).
2. For example, the monthly candle closing for January 2008, 2009 & 2010 was red. The next three years candles for January (i.e 2011, 2012 & 2013) were green. The same pattern repeated in the following years. i.e (2014, 2015 & 2016 = red)
3. However from 2017, the same pattern seem to have been extended to 5 years instead of 3 previously (i.e 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 = green).
4. So, based on the above, its looking likely that Jan-2023 and 2024 will be bearish for Nasdaq (or even 2025 & 2026 if the new trend is 5 years instead of 3). hopefully not though! :(
5. Therefore, in terms of seasonal, my bias is going to be bearish for January 2023.
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