As described in my previous note on the S&P 500, there have been two major market corrections since the end of the Great Recession. They were periods of high volatility and a lot of repricing of stocks for 140 days or more.
In both cases they started with:
1. A complete reset of the daily RSI ( Relative Strength Index below 20) 2. The S&P 500 holds below the 200 day MA 3. The 50bar EMA passes below the 100bar EMA
They end when:
1. The S&P 500 0.54% holds above the 200 day MA 2. The daily RSI holds above 50 3. The 50bar EMA passes above the 100bar EMA
The daily RSI is currently above the trend-line and above 50. The S&P 500 today will open above the 200 day MA and the 50 day EMA should cross above the 100 day EMA within three weeks assuming this new trend continues through Christmas.
When I recently posted on this topic I said "Consumer confidence is high but the only way for this ship to turn around quick is for the Fed to change strategy, that will not happen."
It now looks like it may happen. Additionally, Trump and Xi struck a 90 day trade war truce.
Tech and energy sectors are the most beat up in recent weeks, all of these developments are bullish for these two sectors. Trade opportunities should present them selves in TQQQ and ERX .
Truce... yeah. They agreed not to actively make the situation worse - but for a limited time only. Brilliant stuff.
blloyd
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@flyinkiwi10, Thanks, yes for the situation to improve permanently one has to trust that they will be rational actors. This may be too much to ask for. I would not be surprised if we find higher support levels for a few months as they sort it out however.