The invalidation level on my prior count was hit yet again this morning. I'm keeping an eye on a couple different possibilities. One says the double bottom near the 100% C vs A ends this corrective period and we're turning up from here. The alternative says that point ends only the A wave of a much larger correction that should take us south of 35500. For the immediate future, both of these options would favor at least a temporary period of upside, as even the bearish scenario should settle into a retracement soon.
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A couple other things to consider here: If I've correctly marked the green wave 4, the 38.2% retracement (see the large green area in the bottom of the image) is a reasonable area for the correction to end. If this turns out to be a wave 2, we would normally expect it to push deeper. And then there is also the possibility that my green wave 3 should actually be a 5, and the downward price action from the Nov 8 high is so far just the beginning of a much more significant correction.
I don't take big trades during corrective periods; only scalps down on the 5-15min. The last couple of days have illustrated why. It's very difficult to identify when a correction is actually over. There are so many factors that can contribute to error in corrective counts - wrong degree identification, correction combinations, or corrections that simply morph into larger versions of themselves.
As always, the counts I share are opinions. Trade the trend, not the speculation!
keep in mind too the long wicks on the weekly. could be going to go fill those
EightyNineWaves
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@Ricky2801, hmm possibly, but it would take a much higher degree correction to go that low
Ricky2801
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agreed.
TK_71
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So the trend is still strong bullish??
EightyNineWaves
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@TK_71, it's really hard to say at this point. Identifying the end of a correction is always difficult, until you're well into the next impulse. On the higher degree, the overall correction has only just tapped the 38% retracement. It still has plenty of room to go lower, if it wants to. I'm leaning bullish, but I stress "leaning" :D
TK_71
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@EightyNineWaves, got it. I guess we just saw the bull attack was killed by the bears just now.