There are many commentators and fundamental analyst as they continue to review and propagate how brilliant Abenomic is and how they will continue to flood the world with YEN in the form of Japan's version of QE, YEN will continue to weaken beyond anyone's expectation and warped view of seemingly continued massive USD strength going forward.
I this this is over cooked prognosis as it is not one way street and there are many cross current and very complex forces at work that are not easy to easily comprehend and analyse in my view.
So, I am venturing on my analysis entirely based on price and am not afraid of being wrong with the proviso that I reserve the right to review my analysis when price demands that I do so.
With that background, I think you will agree that on this daily chart we have what I believe is major cycle top, and have already declined of Jan 2014 high in 5 waves decline which appears to me in the form of expanding triangle or Expanding Leading Diagonal to complete (i) and subsequent abc retrenchment just over 61.8% to form wave (ii). If this is correct, then we are now in very early stage of wave (iii) and should begin to build downside momentum specially as we break below 100.5 - 100 which many will consider as support zone.
Should the price action unfolds as I suspect then this could be a fantastic long term short trade rivalling the trade from 2012 low to recent high. I am using the daily price chart in order to outline the details that are indicating to me that we have already commenced the major bearish cycle.
Question is what is the downside target. I would say 50% retracement of the move from 2012 ow to recent high that would be approx around 90. However I think downside will me much lower ie new lower low or retest of 2012 low. I will show this in subsequent charts of larger time frame.
So make sure you select to follow me and the chart as I will be posting several charts to outline my overall view.
Totally agree with the USDJPY short. There seems to be something else in play which we do not know of yet. As for the downside target, i'm looking at 97.5 level. The risk of BoJ printing more money seems to be always a risk. I think we live in interesting times...
tradingview.com/v/pMBxdRe3/
Generalmonkus
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Hey mate, i'm still working on the assumption that we are in W4 of larger W5... so one more up move after this consolidation completes.
DanV
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For those who might have missed my earlier chart suggesting possible major Top Here it is tradingview.com/v/GYyPCji0/
Pashabxl
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Well your analysis can be eventually ok if you look from a purely technical aspect, with not only graph but a purely chartist approach. However, if you keep in mind that BoJ will keep printing Yen, if you do remember the tappering, although the agenda is smoother, and if you do not forget the eventuality of a rate increase in the US, then USD can strengthen against JPY..... But this is just a view....
DanV
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Yes, thanks for that, I am aware of those factors. My proposition is that some event would drive the trend beyond the control we seem to think the central banks might have. USD tapering has been mooted and partially instigated, but so far strangle USD has failed to gain ground even with US economy improving. So something else is at play beyond the horizon of many. So confirmation is going to be undisputed once we break below 100. Time will tell. Thank you for your interest in my analysis.
DanV
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Also based on Daily, zooming out for better perspective, I think we have 1st decline that is exhibiting minor 5 waves suggesting an impulsive downside wave in the form of wave "i" and subsequent messy retracement in the form of wave "ii". That suggest we have no further upside possible.
DanV
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I refer to this Monthly chart, but there is no data on this chart before May 1993, but based on my knowledge of the USDJPY's relentless decline over the period for the purpose of this chart I am making assumption of where the price has come from. To me it is strongly suggesting that we have a possible top and that there is evidence of false break to the upside and RSI clearly suggesting weakening and failing momentum.
DanV
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From purely from my interpretation of EW, which suggest that we have the high in place already and are in early stage of new major downtrend which could retrace 50% of the entire move up from major low, but with monthly chart and taking in more data along with intermarket analysis are of the opinion that we could be looking for a retest of the major low as minimum. Here is the chart only an outline of my expectation.
tradingview.com/v/pMBxdRe3/