In order for ruble to appreciate back to low 50s and 40s, there likely has to be a geopolitical trigger resulting in significant appreciation in oil price. There are signs of such a potential crisis in the Middle East now, and with Russia's involvement in the region already, there are a few different possible scenarios, including Iran, a Russia-ally, destroying its neighbor's oil fields. Given the global political situation with the new Trump administration in the United States and incompetence and lack of cohesion all over Europe, Russia understands that it's foreign activity will not meet much resistance.
Rather than focusing on the 59.00 level, which has been breached with barely any activity several times already today, I am of the belief that 60.00/59.6 levels have no viability of being breached in the near term.
This idea has continued to be valid for a month now. It seems crazy, yet I am sure a USDRUB 80.00 seemed crazy back in July 2014 to most as well.
Опять треугольник нарисовался. Цена ниже 59 не хочет спускаться. Предполагаю первый задёрг в ложном направлении, потом в тренде.