Over the past two days I highlighted the risk of a bearish scenario with me stating it was the first time I was somewhat bearish in the near-term for Gold and Silver. It seems that for now my bearish scenario of a near 1484-1486 drop could [but not necessarily for certain] pan-out before a bounce.
We are simply in a correction before the next long wave up in precious metals so it is very crucial not to get discouraged.
Currently, I see a moderate risk for more downside into the 1484-1486 range (very slight risk down to 1470) levels before we re-test the 1540s off the back of a likely ECB QE announcement on Thursday. From there it will be up to the Fed in a big way. If the Fed cuts 25bps+, my target of 1600 by October 1 that I posted several months ago still remains fully in-tact. If the Fed holds rates steady (which is unlikely, particularly since that would cause a massive general market sell-off), Gold would retrace back into the 1510-1519 range and would await further (future) catalysts for a subsequent rise and remain under pressure around the 1500 mark.
The overall trend for Gold and Silver is extremely bullish, however, like I have noted previously, until we start ramping up rate cuts from the Fed, it will take a little to get to significant highs in Gold/Silver. Moreover, that could be in as little as 1-2 weeks, or it may be in October or November.
Keep in mind though this is a tough call and I am simply highlighting the potential for a further drop. It is possible we bounce from the low to mid 1490s. I do not focus on shorts and my general philosophy remains the same - buy the lows overtime and hold long.
Keep your eyes peeled to the ECB meeting this Thursday and the Fed next week. Time will tell. As always, stay patient.
Expectations - ECB announces QE on Thursday - Powell cuts 25bps Sept 18/19 - Both events should they occur, drive Gold drastically higher than the current price
Hi Sir, thanks for sharing. Not going to sell my precious either way and your chart is self explanatory (bounce back at about 1470), yet an update from your end is always a nice piece read!
Thanks again
Javier
wangbo641801
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Any update?
JYP1217
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Classic case of jumping the gun... I fell for it too. Took a beating continuing to buy the dips when the technicals looked horrible on most time frames. Lesson learned. Moving on.
Thanks again
Javier