Gold: negative outlook below 1,104/08

FX:XAUUSD   Золото / Доллар США
"A gold-bull market that relies too heavily on safe-haven related demand may not be sustainable in the long run."
- HSBC (based on CNBC)

Pair's Outlook
Near-term outlook for gold is moderately bearish . We see the formidable resistance zone ahead of the bullion, represented by 100-day SMA and Jan 8-20 downtrend at 1,104/08. Any close above here should trigger a rally, but the bulls are likely to struggle at 1,126/32 (monthly R3/ 200-day SMA ). On the bearish side, we would allow for a selloff down to 1,087 (20-day SMA and monthly R1), followed by two-month uptrend and 55-day SMA at 1,076. A drop below here will increase downside pressure on gold in the mid-term, but some support should be in place at 1,065 (monthly PP ) and at 1,046 (2015 low) later.

Traders' Sentiment
Advantage of long traders has been unchanged over the last 48 hours, as they continue holding about 55% of all open transactions in the SWFX market.

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