🇯🇵 Long Nippon Tel & Tel at 152.6

27 нояб.

For today's international stock hypothetical trade, I'm off to the Asia-Pacific region to visit the Nikkei and attempt to outdo its 20 year average annual return in this trade alone. Since that is -1.1% per year, I think I can clear that bar. Plus, with the US markets closed tomorrow, I need something to entertain me when I wake up.

As you can see, the chart on Nippon isn't particuarly compelling, but my algo and I would have been 20-0 over the time period shown on the chart, so I feel good about it nonetheless.

One of the reasons I chose Nippon (there's lots of stuff down on the Nikkei) is that FPC trades on this name tend to close quicker than most. Overall returns on an absolute level are small (avg. 1.16%) but getting that in an average of 9 days in a market that returns 200ish% less than that a year is pretty good work, I think. I'm sure most Japanese buy and holders would take it, anyway.

I'm obvioulsy not trading this for real from half a planet away, but I'll play it like I am.

Per my usual strategy, once I'm in I'll add at the close on any day it still flashes "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

27 нояб.

Заметка

Editorial note: accuracy matters to me, so in the interest of that, the average annual return of the Nikkei is not -1.1% over the last 20 years. Part Google's fault, part my fault, 100% my responsibility. Over the last 20 years, to the best of my calculating ability, it's around 6.7% per year (.027% per trading day). Sorry for that misstep. I can still beat .027% per day, I think.

28 нояб.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

Position closed at the end of the session for a +1.25% gain in one trading day.

That's an impressive 1-day return on an objective basis, but on a relative basis it's far beyond what I expected from this trade. Granted, plain old luck may play SOME part in this, but that 1 DAY return is almost 19% of a typical entire YEAR'S return for the Nikkei. Even this year, which is running over double the return of an average year, it represents a gain equivalent to almost an entire average month this year for the Nikkei. And while it was an up day for the Nikkei, which always helps, the return here on Nippon was over 2.5x the return of the Nikkei today. It was a trade that was over 46x better than the average daily return of the Nikkei over the last 20 years. I couldn't be happier with this trade. Quick trade + oversized daily return = happy trader!

28 нояб.

Заметка

Trade summary for my records

Wins 1
Losses 0

Average gain per lot = +1.25%
Average holding period per lot = 1 day
Gain per lot per day = 1.25%
Annualized return = 1.25% x 245 (Japan has fewer trading days) = +306%