#AAPL - UPDATED EMA CHART

18 июл. 2020 г.

Updated chart providing a more elongated perspective on the definitive trend line.
Its more than obvious that when the price intersects the ema you have a significant
bullish upswing. The breakouts are substantial usually occurring over a 30 bar period
with the most significant movement occurring from June 29th, through July 13th.

Prior movements from the intersecting points (since March) have a included
a $27 gain from June 4th, through June 11th, and a $29 gain from June 15th,
through June 23rd.

In this chart the line only dips below the intersecting ema 4 times (since March)
and averaged less than a $3 drop over a period of 2-3 days.

The chart maybe simple, but it makes abundantly clear when to buy.

18 июл. 2020 г.

Заметка

after further analysis it appears our target range for the short term declination is 381. However, the longer it takes to get to 381, the higher the intersection dollar point becomes. e.g. July 22, the intersecting dollar point becomes 387. July 24th, the intersecting dollar points becomes 392.

Additionally if we suppose a further sell-off on Monday morning, and we drop to 381. That would be the first time price has reached the ema since June 29th.
Be mindful however, and as provided in the original analysis, price has falling below the ema on 4 separate occasions since March, and can result in an additional 2-3 dollars below the ema- but at most for 2-3 days.

I would say that we're really close to the next buying cycle which could result in price climbing another 10, 15, 20 dollars and could result in a price of 401's by the week ending July 24th.

Caution however should be paid to current business climate as Covid-19 and California Shutdown, as well earning season could counter act this trend.

It would be prudent to have a two-week forward perspective, concentrating not on this next week to slaughter the bears, but a cumulative effect, and a nice run up to earnings- June 30th.

Be mindful that this analysis is not investment advice and is for educational purposes only. However, if we do realize a modest loss in price early in the week, beginning July 20th, a two week call option with a target price of 405. Would be advantageous.

Pricing on such, is loaded with theta at -$37 week ending July 31st, and -$30 for July 24th. Including -theta, and with no deviation in IV, for each $1 the price rises or falls, it will result in a $22 movement in premium.

I would hold off on executing any additional orders the morning of July 20th, and wait until the 11am to 12pm time frame to evaluate as if this last weeks trend continues we could still see a significant sell-off early Monday.

Counter to that, if the price increases I would exercise caution as we have not officially completed the cycle and could be anticipating additional declines in price immediately following.