AEROUSDT 4H – EMA Deviation Long on Base Liquidity Engine

1. Setup

Aerodrome is still the main liquidity flywheel on Base and is now set to merge with Velodrome into a single AERO token that will also live on Ethereum and Circle’s ARC. After the post-news flush, price on Bybit perps sits around 0.84–0.85, below the 4H EMA band and inside my demand + deviation zone.

I’m taking a 4H EMA Deviation long with a swing horizon of ~1–3 days.

2. Technical context (4H)

The local trend topped near 1.10–1.12, where multiple higher-TF order blocks sit. From there we got a clean breakdown through the 4H EMA ribbon and a series of lower lows into the green demand cluster around 0.82–0.84.



Current trade levels on the chart:

Entry: 0.842

Stop: 0.758 (below demand and the last capitulation wick)

Target: 1.014–1.02 (4H EMA re-test + prior consolidation / supply)

That’s roughly +20.5% upside vs −10.3% downside, R:R ≈ 2:1.
The 4H deviation sits above its average “stretched” reading, so the setup fits my mean-reversion rules rather than chasing trend.

3. Strategy statistics – 4H EMA Dev Long (AERO)

Backtest on this pair / timeframe: 26 trades, long only.

Winrate: 80.77%

Avg PnL per trade: +8.24%

Avg winner: +10.98%

Avg loser: −3.28% → win/loss size ratio ≈ 3.34

Largest winner: +25.17%, largest loser: −5.67%

Avg duration: 24 bars, winners around 21 bars, losers ~36 bars

Historically, losers are shallow but drag out longer; if this bounce doesn’t materialise within a typical 20–24 bar window, I’d rather cut than sit through slow bleed.



4. Fundamentals & narrative

Active positives right now:

Merge with Velodrome into one protocol and token (“AERO”) launching on Ethereum + Circle’s ARC. Existing Aerodrome holders are set to receive 94.5% of the new supply – strong alignment for current AERO holders.

Aerodrome controls ~53% of Base’s ~$4.7B DeFi TVL via ve(3,3) mechanics. About 45% of AERO is locked with an average remaining lock of 2.8 years, and protocols compete for veAERO via $2–4M weekly bribes, generating 35–45% APR from real fees, not emissions.

Narrative kicker: deposit tokens from JPMorgan reportedly already operating on Base, with the chain framed as a “default banking L2”. If that flow scales, first-order liquidity beneficiaries are AERO, lending, and major DEX routes on Base.

Expired but still relevant context:

Programmatic buybacks via the Public Goods Fund – over 150M AERO acquired and 4y-locked across PGF, Flight School, Relay.

Aerodrome crossed into deflation in September 2025, with cumulative $400M+ fees and a model where 100% of DEX revenue goes to veAERO lockers.

Large strategic lockers include Coinbase and Animoca, strengthening the “institutional Base” story.

Score: BBB+ / Positive, with key risks in narrative overextension (Base banking thesis needs confirmation), merge execution, and general market beta.

5. Trade plan & invalidation

Idea: play a mean-reversion bounce from 4H demand + EMA deviation back into the 1.00+ supply zone, while the Base / merge narrative is still hot and fee flows stay strong.

If price closes 4H below 0.758 and can’t quickly reclaim the EMA ribbon, I treat the setup as invalid and step aside – that would indicate a deeper reset of the whole move from 0.70. If we tag 1.00–1.02, I’ll realise most of the position there and only trail a small runner in case the merge and Base catalysts trigger a new leg to fresh highs.

Not financial advice – just documenting a systematic EMA Deviation long on one of the key Base liquidity primitives.