Long AMZN (but not for long) @ 183.13
Обновлено
Thesis: AMZN is oversold according to my algo. The end.
OK just for everyone else who doesn't know that all my trades are run by my algo, I'll spice it up a little with this chart and some fundamental news just for that crowd.
The blue line shows very strong long term support going back to late 2022 - tested and held 3x.
The white line is short term support from the previous high before the most recent one set on Sept. 24th. While it won't matter to me if AMZN breaks through this, it would be a slight negative. I don't expect it to break this before a little run up, however. It certainly could, though.
The orange line is medium term support from the August 28th low. Incidentally, that's the last time my algo considered it oversold and it proceeded to rally around 13% after that.
Short term, the green triangle is a somewhat neutral triangle, but given that the bottom is steeper than the top, it was tested and held today, and the triangle is part of a strong longer-term uptrend, it gets a mildly bullish vote from me.
Finally, Deloitte, Mastercard and Adobe all came out with holiday sales forecasts predicting an anywhere from 7-10% increase in online holiday sales this year vs. last year. That's fundamentally bullish for AMZN.
The east coast longshoremen's strike is not especially bullish, but I imagine that most of AMZN's purchases that ship from overseas come from East Asia, rather than Europe, so I don't see that as a huge negative...YET. If it is a protracted strike and starts to affect the economy at large, then I think it's going to affect AMZN too.
My trade will hopefully be a short term trade, expecting a rebound, rather than a trade long enough for the strike to seriously affect the stock. I wouldn't personally get concerned unless AMZN breaks the blue trend line with force. Even then, AMZN is not going away.
If the rebound takes longer and it stays oversold, I'll add more lots and I'll sell when each lot becomes profitable. This is ideally a quick win trade, allowing me to cycle the proceeds into another idea, not a big win trade. In the last 12 months, that strategy is 19-2* on AMZN (the 2 are still open trades from early July).
This is entertainment, not financial advice, so don't take it as such. DYOR and make wise investment decisions based on it. I'll update this as buys or sells are made.
OK just for everyone else who doesn't know that all my trades are run by my algo, I'll spice it up a little with this chart and some fundamental news just for that crowd.
The blue line shows very strong long term support going back to late 2022 - tested and held 3x.
The white line is short term support from the previous high before the most recent one set on Sept. 24th. While it won't matter to me if AMZN breaks through this, it would be a slight negative. I don't expect it to break this before a little run up, however. It certainly could, though.
The orange line is medium term support from the August 28th low. Incidentally, that's the last time my algo considered it oversold and it proceeded to rally around 13% after that.
Short term, the green triangle is a somewhat neutral triangle, but given that the bottom is steeper than the top, it was tested and held today, and the triangle is part of a strong longer-term uptrend, it gets a mildly bullish vote from me.
Finally, Deloitte, Mastercard and Adobe all came out with holiday sales forecasts predicting an anywhere from 7-10% increase in online holiday sales this year vs. last year. That's fundamentally bullish for AMZN.
The east coast longshoremen's strike is not especially bullish, but I imagine that most of AMZN's purchases that ship from overseas come from East Asia, rather than Europe, so I don't see that as a huge negative...YET. If it is a protracted strike and starts to affect the economy at large, then I think it's going to affect AMZN too.
My trade will hopefully be a short term trade, expecting a rebound, rather than a trade long enough for the strike to seriously affect the stock. I wouldn't personally get concerned unless AMZN breaks the blue trend line with force. Even then, AMZN is not going away.
If the rebound takes longer and it stays oversold, I'll add more lots and I'll sell when each lot becomes profitable. This is ideally a quick win trade, allowing me to cycle the proceeds into another idea, not a big win trade. In the last 12 months, that strategy is 19-2* on AMZN (the 2 are still open trades from early July).
This is entertainment, not financial advice, so don't take it as such. DYOR and make wise investment decisions based on it. I'll update this as buys or sells are made.
Сделка активна
Added another lot at 184.79 just before the close - still oversold.Сделка активна
Added another lot at the close for 181.94 - still oversold.
Current lots held:
185.13 (typo on the title - it never even touched 183.13 that day)
184.79
181.94
Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена
POSITION CLOSED
Sold all 3 lots at the close today for 186.51.
Lot 1: +0.75% in 3 days
Lot 2: +0.93% in 2 days
Lot 3: +2.51% in 1 day
Заметка
Trade summary for my records
Wins 3 Losses 0
Average gain per lot: +1.4%
Average hold per lot: 2 days
Average gain per lot per day: +0.7%
Per lot per day gain annualized return: +176%
Отказ от ответственности
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