Amazon Projected Path?

2 мая 2019 г.

Now that Bezos and his wife have split and she is due her share of the Amazon fortunes, will Amazon experience a pole shift and go through an extended Bear cycle?

Rounding to make it easy to identify, Amazon spent roughly 17-18 years in an uptrend.
So it would seem intuitive that it's time for things to cool off and spent an 17-18 year period in a downtrend in order to restore balance.

This does not mean there isn't a chance to see returns. If you are 'market illiterate', and do not cash out and hold through the cycle, you WILL see negative returns.
BUT, if you understand that a consolidation period for a global enterprise takes many years in order to restructure fiscal and human capital, then you should understand the need for such a lengthy consolidation period and adjust your investment strategy to support the company when times are hard, taking profits at certain intervals in order to lower your average entry. You should also understand that while this period may seem lengthy for a downtrend, the entire period will NOT be spent losing value, and WILL experience a return to median value for the majority of the trend.


Then again there's always the possibility that Amazon continues to climb, and enjoy another decade(?) of prosperity. And if that's the case, I've noticed several older companies experience longer cycles where they'll go through a 30 year uptrend and then experience a 20 year downtrend. Take RRAD for example - From basically 69' - 99' (uptrend) 99' - 2019' (downtrend). Other companies in the same industry, like WBA, have continued to experience overall growth and stay in an uptrend since 69' (50 years!). I imagine they'll be able to negate a downtrend for at least another decade because of their strategic move to acquire about half of RRAD's holdings. This should provide the stimulus needed to avoid a major consolidation while also serving as a catalyst to propel the company to new highs. And Amazon may already have such a strategy in place, allowing it to experience continued growth.

I don't know. I'm just speculating like a mugg - a hypothesis that just may come to fruition. I just wanted to get this chart posted as a reference to examine in the future.