Arlo Loading the Spring!

Good Afternoon,

I hope all is well. I have not posted lately - so here is one !

Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Breakout (Higher Probability if Confirmed)

Thesis:
Institutions defend current range and push price through the 200 EMA, triggering acceleration.

What confirms it
Clean 1h close above the 200 EMA
Follow-through volume expansion
Successful retest of EMA as support

Targets

$14.30–14.60 (prior range highs / supply)
Extension toward $15.00–15.50 if momentum builds

Risk Management
Invalidation: loss of $13.20

Ideal stop: below the consolidation base

Why it works
Bears have failed multiple breakdowns
Accumulation + compression often resolves upward
Short positioning can fuel a squeeze

Scenario 2: Range Extension / Continued Chop (Neutral)

Thesis:
Price remains trapped between range support and the 200 EMA, frustrating both sides.

What it looks like
Repeated EMA rejections
Higher lows but no follow-through
Declining volatility after spikes

Range

Support: $13.00–13.20

Resistance: $13.90–14.00

Trading Approach
Fade extremes (mean reversion)
Reduce size, quicker profit-taking

Wait for HTF confirmation

Risk
Overtrading in low-quality conditions

Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown / HTF Alignment (Lower Probability, Higher Impact)

Thesis:
Institutional support fails and higher-timeframe shorts regain control.

What confirms it
Strong impulsive breakdown below $13.00
Acceptance below range (not a wick)
Volume expansion to the downside

Targets

$12.40–12.60 (prior demand)

Extension to $11.80–12.00 if selling accelerates

Risk Management
Invalidation: reclaim of $13.50
Avoid shorting into support without confirmation


Trade Safely!
Enjoy!