40 Day Peak Likely in, Shorting for the 40 Day Trough.

22 апр. 2020 г.

Hello traders,

I mostly trade the 20 day FLD (Future line of demarcation) and the target generated from the 20 Day FLD has been met for the 40 day peak. However while considering the 40 day FLD, the peak target is 0.90730 and the high of today as of now is 0.90103, so maybe there can be a little push up before we go down to the trough.

Today is the 34th day in the cycle and the rising wedge is squeezing tighter so time is ripe for the decline into the 40 Day trough.

TARGETS
As I trade the 80 day cycle therefore I look at the 20 Day FLD for target generation.
Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 0.88519, Pivot point will be the peak high, which as of now is at 0.90103 this gives us the target of 0.86935

I have my sell stop orders waiting around the cross point.

The overall trend is strongly up so I have adjusted my position size accordingly.

Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.



Tomorrows

Sell stop orders

27 апр. 2020 г.

Заметка

As expected above an up-move was always in the scenario, the probability of short is increasing on account of we are now 39 days into the cycle and the 40 day trough is imminent. we are also outside the 80 day channel (on the upside) so we can expect a downmove soon. gives us a better position in enter this short, I have my orders set slightly below todays low. the new Target if price crossed the 20 day FLD tomorrow is 0.87886

Note : this target is generated considering that the high is 0.90642, it will change as per the highest price we print before descending into the trough

28 апр. 2020 г.

Заметка

weakness coming in on the 4 hour chart, pp\rice should decline soon. New target based on tomorrow 20 day FLD median price = 0.89324 Pivot = 0.91010
Target 0.87638

29 апр. 2020 г.

Заявка отменена

19/03 is now more and more looking like a 18 month trough, price has also crossed above the 40 Week valid trend line. when bouncing out of such a high magnitude trough, cycles tend to contract. it's 41 days today in the cycle hence its reasonable to assume the 40 day trough is behind us, maybe around the 19-20/04 weekend was the trough.

Price should pull back a bit and I will be longing that pull back!