*SMC* AUDUSD Top-Down Analysis ICT

15 июн.

Firstly, on the weekly TF, since April, the market showed a willing to climb to the FVG made in December 2023. We currently are in a premium relative to the low made in April to the high made in May. The Market could come all the way down to equilibrium and in a discount level but I would favor not going bellow the Breaker (which is the green box), in other words, staying above 0.65160. I would favor this option at the moment because the body of the weekly candle respected respected the body of the Breaker.
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Now let's go down to the Daily TF
As we can see, there is sellside liquidity at 0.65580 which I suspect we could see it being swept next week however, with my expectation of the DXY dropping eventually, I do not intend to take any short next week. ''Oh but I need to take a trade now!'' Okay, I understand completely, but sometimes we need to sit back and wait, and if I missed a trade so what? Most trader are unprofitable because of overtrading. Just bellow this level we have the Weekly FVG which overlay perfectly with a Daily FVG. Now, something I noticed is how the body of the OrderBlock made the April 12 correspond with the Equilibrium, which could become a strong PDArrays if the aussie dollar ever come to go lower than my expectation. Also, we can see that the MeanThreshold of the Daily OrderBlock of April 30, overlay perfectly with the low of the Weekly Breaker, adding confluence on why the price shouldn't go bellow the Breaker.

To sum up, The 0.67141 Level is very where my focus is rn, the price could (and most likely will) go bellow last week low taking out Sellside Liquidity, but I do not intend to take any short this week, if I do, I will probably split my risk in two. Tuesday we have ''Retail Sales m/m'' in the morning and later ''RBA Rate Statement'' which should bring a lot of volatility.


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Now let's take a look of the Fundamental of the Aussie, which is mostly relevent for the Weekly chart:

Fundamentally, the Australian dollars remains strong, with higher inflation than expected since April:
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May 28, 2024 3.6% 3.4% 3.5%
Apr 23, 2024 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Mar 26, 2024 3.4% 3.5% 3.4%
Feb 27, 2024 3.4% 3.6% 3.4%
Jan 30, 2024 3.4% 3.7% 4.3%
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Also, Australia is a commodity pair, meaning that the Futures Chart is correlated with commodities such as Gold, Silver.
Furthermore, with China demands for metals increasing it helps the AUD to gain value, as it exports lot of metals.
In addition, Seasonal tendency of the Australian Dollar is showing a bit of weakness during June before gaining strength in July.

As some of you saw my previous expectation for the DXY, the AUDUSD should respect the same idea in the direction of the market.

Here is the seasonality chart of the Australian Dollar Futures Seasonality:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investing.com%2Fanalysis%2Faud-enters-a-period-of-seasonal-strength-228972&psig=AOvVaw2GCdizhyQoTNwHqd_bIzDh&ust=1718544986982000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBEQjRxqFwoTCKiHrI3d3YYDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
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