AUD/USD Appreciates Amid US Data, Eyes Key Supply Area

13 сент.

The AUD/USD pair saw an upward movement as recent US economic data increased expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Despite these gains, the market remains cautious, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rising above forecasts, largely driven by higher service costs. This inflationary uptick has complicated the outlook, as the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut at its September meeting.

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD is approaching a critical supply area, which could trigger a potential pullback later today. This level has historically acted as resistance, and with fundamentals remaining largely unchanged ahead of Monday, traders should be wary of a possible reversal to retrace yesterday’s gains.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides further insight, showing that retail traders are still heavily long this week, while institutional or "smart money" remains bearish on the pair. This divergence between retail and institutional positioning strengthens the case for a near-term pullback as the pair approaches overbought conditions.

While the fundamentals remain steady, with no major developments expected until next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, market participants are closely watching for signs of a reversal at the current technical levels. A pullback to recover the ground covered by yesterday’s candle is a scenario many traders are anticipating. However, with the Fed’s decision looming and mixed signals from the PPI data, volatility could remain high as the market navigates this critical period.

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