Long AUD/USD: Buy at support

4 июн. 2020 г.

The AUD/USD bullish trend will continue for the next few weeks.

Reasons below support for a bullish breakout.

Buy at trend channel support ie 0.67640 | risk/reward ratio = 3

Fundamentals
AUD:
- Recovering domestic economic data ie good PMI's, strong consumer confidence, better than expected retail sales for May, lockdowns ending sooner than expected
- Rising commodity prices ie iron ore hitting 100/tonne, iron ore supply shortage in Brazil and Australia, copper prices up 20% from March low
- Strong demand for commodities ie China infrastructure spending accounting for 20-25% of steel demand, strong CAIXIN PMI's suggest rekindling of industrial demand
- Rate hold by RBA to appreciate AUD

- "Risk-on" sentiment ie plunging DXY, gold trending sideways, US10Y yield is up, major indices (US500, FTSE 100, ASX 200, Nikkei) rallying

USD:
- US riots ---> extend lockdown, could start second COVID-19 wave ---> devaluing USD
- US-China tensions ----> less demand for USD, risk losing phase-1 trade deal ------> devaluing USD
- Incoming hurricane ----> could impact shale industry meaning more unemployment resulting in deflation ----> devaluing USD
- Incoming economic data -----> weekly jobless claims to climb to 1.8 million, sluggish retail sales ------> devaluing USD

Technicals
- 20 day MA crossover of both 50 day and 200 day
- 20 day MA now support
- Strong bullish upward trend channel
- RSI approaching oversold levels
- MACD yet to crossover
- Doji candle stick suggesting pullback