Boeing BA - A Dark Harbour

6 сент. 2022 г.

I have never looked at Boeing until today, when I saw some guy posting ideas about it while I was having lunch and I didn't even recognize the ticker, and so I took a look at it, and was surprised to see what I found.

In considering this company, I completely understand that they've had problems with their planes, and big ones. But I have also said that I do not put much weight in the ostensible correlation between fundamentals of a company and price.

So long as the equity is still being maintained by Wall Street's behemoths, price action will remain orderly made and constitute a fractal that is rationally written and contains the combined intelligence of all market participants.

Boeing is really notable on the monthly charts:



Frankly, its bullish price action looked even better than what stuff like AAPL and TSLA printed during this unsustainable Federal Reserve money printer-backed tractor pull to SPX 4,800, and it occurred before COVID, and was accompanied by heavy distribution.

It only finally corrected when COVID hit, and yet it only swept out the '16 low, which led to the original impulse to $450.

Even more taste bud-piquing is the weekly chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gCpErMT6/

BA has not had a shred of bullish impulse since March of 2021. More or less, while the entire market went ape-up in a straight line, Boeing has just grinded downwards.

This is highly indicative of significant smart money accumulation.

When the big 2022 correction started, Boeing lost 30% like everyone else, but formed a 24-month double bottom and protected its pre-COVID low with a generous wick and a healthy bounce.

More importantly, there is a gap that appears both on the daily and weekly candles at $330, which is exceptionally notable considering this mid-term range high, printed 18 months ago, wasn't far away at $~279.

I believe that a significant shakeout in the market will come shortly.

VIX - 9x8 = 72

But based on the price action of Boeing, I can't help but feel this is the definition of oversold and that an expectation from short sellers that this is going to turn around and rip south to new lows is going to be met with only one outcome: liquidation.

For other defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, although they have totally different (and much more bullish) price action compared BA, they share the characteristic of severely lagging the overall market in terms of bull impulse.

And these are arguably the most critical companies underpinning the United States and the globalist empire.

This leads me to believe that what lies ahead is a catalyst that will see defense and aerospace stocks go on a _significant_ bull run, providing an unlikely harbour amid an overall market that sees both equities and commodities revisiting (and breaking) pre-COVID market structure.

SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws

For Boeing, it's still too expensive to buy, trading above the equilibrium point of this June-forward dealing range.

However, if this thesis that Boeing will go on a tear and not turn around and die is correct, I would want to see it fall to only a certain point and not flirt with the double bottom or the even the June gap lows.

The best buy signal, hands down, will be a dump into the $135 range, accompanied by market makers reverently supporting this area.

If so, you should definitely expect this whole 18 month range below $280 gets cleaned up, and likely in a highly aggressive fashion.

The question is, what serves as a catalyst for the defense and aerospace industry to moon?

There are no pleasant answers.