PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 14 JUN 2023
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Today's price action is very interesting mainly because
banknifty proved the last 30mts of surge yesterday was fake
banknifty won the tug-of-war with nifty50 at 15.00 today
We will analyze both of them in detail.
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1. We had an unusual gap-up opening and then sudden fall of 220pts ~ 0.5% in 20 minutes. Banknifty went below the support of 44068 inside first 10mts itself.
This shows the last 30mts rocket-style surge we had yesterday was a fake. I guess it would be positional trades taken as part of Finnifty expiry. People with deep pockets could easily manipulate markets at the expense of retail traders.
Any trader who would have short sold 19450 CE on finnifty could relate to this. Ideally 19450 should have expired worthless, but the 30mts of surge ensured it closed in the month. And look what we have today !
Banknifty & Finnifty share similar component stocks which makes it easy to take a view on Tuesday & an opposite view for Thursday. Both the views will make money & the markets will stay at the same levels!
What SEBI has to do is push BSE to place its BANKEX expiries on Wednesday ensuring big-boys dont manipulate markets!
2. In Yesterday's report, I did mention a tug-of-war between banknifty & nifty50, options data was showing bearishness for BN and bullishness for N50. It swung in N50's direction yesterday.
Today the opposite happened at 15.00 - again the options data showed bearishness for BN & bullishness for N50 & it swung in BN's favor.
One other reason that happened may be because BN was at its support level yesterday & N50 was at its resistance level today.
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Coming back to the 15mts TF of banknifty, its still in the range. Today we had a break of support - so its advantage bears. For momentum to build we need to break either of the range's band.
---
1hr is not showing any bearishness, but the same range based trade is continuing. Tomorrow's expiry is going to be interesting as we already have lot of short build up at CE side!
Today's price action is very interesting mainly because
banknifty proved the last 30mts of surge yesterday was fake
banknifty won the tug-of-war with nifty50 at 15.00 today
We will analyze both of them in detail.
---
1. We had an unusual gap-up opening and then sudden fall of 220pts ~ 0.5% in 20 minutes. Banknifty went below the support of 44068 inside first 10mts itself.
This shows the last 30mts rocket-style surge we had yesterday was a fake. I guess it would be positional trades taken as part of Finnifty expiry. People with deep pockets could easily manipulate markets at the expense of retail traders.
Any trader who would have short sold 19450 CE on finnifty could relate to this. Ideally 19450 should have expired worthless, but the 30mts of surge ensured it closed in the month. And look what we have today !
Banknifty & Finnifty share similar component stocks which makes it easy to take a view on Tuesday & an opposite view for Thursday. Both the views will make money & the markets will stay at the same levels!
What SEBI has to do is push BSE to place its BANKEX expiries on Wednesday ensuring big-boys dont manipulate markets!
2. In Yesterday's report, I did mention a tug-of-war between banknifty & nifty50, options data was showing bearishness for BN and bullishness for N50. It swung in N50's direction yesterday.
Today the opposite happened at 15.00 - again the options data showed bearishness for BN & bullishness for N50 & it swung in BN's favor.
One other reason that happened may be because BN was at its support level yesterday & N50 was at its resistance level today.
---
Coming back to the 15mts TF of banknifty, its still in the range. Today we had a break of support - so its advantage bears. For momentum to build we need to break either of the range's band.
---
1hr is not showing any bearishness, but the same range based trade is continuing. Tomorrow's expiry is going to be interesting as we already have lot of short build up at CE side!
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