BASF, tentative break of downtrend

17 мая 2016 г.

The recent break to the upside of a descending triangle channel looks promising, however to confirm a movement to the upside a break of the RSI descending trendline is needed. In fact, a short term bullish divergence can be seen forming in the RSI (green arrow), which if carried through could indicate the onset of a reversal.
The price has found a strong long term support level at around 63.68, which has brought it to test resistance at the 50 day moving average (violet curve), also a confluence level at the 0.618 fibo trend retracement and 0.236 retracement from the June of last year's high. The current price action seems to have established a upward trending channel which in case of a break of the 50 day EMA could see it testing the 200 day EMA at around 85 for resistance.
On the flip side, a break of the current channel below 75.80 could signal that price isn't ready for a continued recovery and will likely see it fall back to ~ 73.
The long term trend is still bullish above the February 2016 significant low at 63.68.