Technical analysis of the Bitcoin/US Dollar 4H chart by BF

27 сент.

Technical analysis of the Bitcoin/US Dollar 4H chart by Blaž Fabjan

BTW: My previous analysis was accurately forecasted.

Technical Overview:

Descending Trading Channel (Past Trend):

The chart shows a previous descending trading channel that occurred in August and early September.
During this period, the price was continuously making lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend.
The channel was eventually broken at the marked point, followed by a reversal.

Reversal Signal:

A clear breakout from the descending channel occurred, signaling a potential trend reversal.
This was confirmed with a higher low formation just before the breakout.

Ascending Trading Channel (Current Trend):

After the breakout, the price moved into an ascending trading channel, with visible support and resistance lines marked in the chart.
The price has been oscillating within this channel, with higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish short-term trend.
The chart shows a current position near the support of this ascending channel.

Potential Bounce (Highlighted Area):

There is a highlighted area where a price bounce is expected around the support of the ascending channel. The chart suggests a potential upward movement toward the upper resistance of the channel.
The overall market sentiment is bullish within the channel, and the projected path is an upward movement.

Indicators:

VMC Cipher B: Shows divergences and a rising momentum (green dots indicate potential buy signals).

RSI (14): Around 63.72, indicating mild bullish momentum but not overbought.
Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI is at 83.55, showing that the price may be nearing overbought conditions, which could indicate a temporary pullback before continuing the upward trend.

HMA Histogram: Histogram is red, indicating a slight bearish correction, but the overall bullish channel and indicators suggest it is likely a minor pullback before the continuation of the uptrend.

Trading Plan:

Entry Point:

Consider entering a long position near the lower boundary (support) of the ascending channel, around the current price level (potential bounce area).
Monitor the RSI and Stochastic RSI levels to ensure that a bounce is confirmed.

Stop Loss:

Place a stop loss just below the lower boundary of the ascending channel to protect against further downside risk.
This would be below the recent support level.

Take Profit:

Target the upper boundary (resistance) of the ascending channel for the first take-profit level.
If a strong breakout occurs above the channel, the next take-profit target could be around $68,000, following the upward projection marked by the arrow.

Risk Management:

Given the overbought levels in the Stochastic RSI, consider scaling into the position or waiting for confirmation of a bounce to reduce risk.
Adjust stop-loss as the price moves higher, to lock in profits.

Monitoring:

Keep an eye on macroeconomic events, as external factors can impact Bitcoin's price.
Pay attention to potential divergence signals in the VMC Cipher B for early warnings of trend reversals.
This analysis suggests a bullish continuation in the short term, but caution is advised due to the potential for pullbacks as indicated by the overbought Stochastic RSI levels.