Bitcoin bear market bottom 2018-2019

7 янв. 2019 г.

The analysis used to get to my conclusion on this chart is very basic. Trend analysis usually isn´t the best way to determine the end of market cycles, but historically speaking, bitcoin bubbles have been following these trends cycle after cycle. In this case, I´m speaking about the bearish trend. The trend starts at the peak of the bubble and is drawn down through the first capitulation and ends by supporting price at its last capitulation before bottoming out. In past bear markets, this trend line could have been plotted in different ways, however, in this one, the trend line lines up near to perfection by creating support and resistance several times.
Another observation based on past cycles is the final support of price. After concluding a bear market, bitcoin price starts to ascend steadily until this monotone climb becomes parabolic. Parabolic rises are often followed by a slight correction (in bull markets), the price retest after the first parabolic ascent in the bull market historically has signaled the final support at the end of the bear market in bitcoin. (This statement should be reinforced by volume analysis)
Combining these observations we can determine approximately bitcoins bottom at its specific price and time.