🔥 Why I'm Still Bullish: Comparing Different Bitcoin Cycles

23 сент. 2021 г.

Once in a while I like to take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles and put them next to each other on one chart. In this analysis I measure one cycle from bottom to top, not from halving.

You can find my previous cycle comparison here:

When looking at the cycle comparison, there are several interesting things that you can deduce from this graph.
1) The cycles are getting less intense. The difference between the top and the low is relatively decreasing, making each cycle less explosive than the previous.
2) The cycles are getting longer. With each new cycle, it takes longer to reach the top of the cycle. "Time is your friend" has never been more fitting.

Now that Bitcoin has seen a sell-off for three weeks in a row, it's logical to see that the amount of overall bearishness in the market has increased. However, I don't agree with the notion that the bull-cycle is over and that we're going back to 10k. Instead, I'm expecting that we're going to see a new all-time-high in Q4-2021. Q4 has historically been the best quarter for BTC.

I arrive at this conclusion by looking at the chart above. We are simply too early in the cycle to have topped already. In addition, BTC didn't even come close to the blue line (I'm making the assumption it should). The blue line connects the previous cycle highs with each other and has been almost spot-on predicting the previous cycle top.

I'm expecting a bull-cycle top between 130k and 200k, somewhere in the first half of 2022. This takes in to account that the current cycle will see less growth than the previous cycles, and that the cycle will take longer from bottom to top.

Click on the chart below to see a more speculative top prediction, which is based on logarithmic Fibonacci extensions. This analysis puts the top at ~215k. More speculative, but it gives an interesting perspective nevertheless.

Overall, it's still very plausible that BTC can go down in the near term. However, this analysis will still hold if we see a couple more bearish weeks.

In case you wish to add something constructive to the discussion, please share your charts below. Where do you think Bitcoin will be in 6 months?

Happy trading!