State of the Epoch Update

11 мар. 2021 г.

Based on my previous articles, Epochal Price Discovery in Bitcoin Post-Halvening and The Next Decade of Bitcoin Price Discovery, I am updating my chart to bring things up to date.

By my estimation, we have had 3 years of good news in 3 months:

• The US Comptroller of Currency issued an interpretative letter that authorizes any federally chartered US bank to utilize cryptocurrency and blockchain technology in offering all authorized banking services.
  
• Tesla Motors purchased $1.5 billion dollars of Bitcoin in January and will accept Bitcoin as payment for vehicles in the near future.
  
• Canada approved a Bitcoin ETF and then approved another one for good measure.And then the madmen went and approved another.
• Paypal has integrated Bitcoin use in its transaction service in the US. Major corporations and investment funds have started to put significant percentages of their investment reserves into Bitcoin.
  
• Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund, which manages $5.3 billion USD, has reserved options to invest up to 10% of their total holdings.
  
• One River Digital Asset Management has commitments that will bring its holdings to $1 billion USD as of early 2021.
  
• British Investment Firm, Ruffer, took a position valued at 550 million GBP (745M USD), which is 2.7% of their total assets under management (they since recently sold to recapture their initial purchase price and continue to hold the other half).
  
• MassMutual (a mutual life insurance company) has invested $100 million USD, which JPMorgan Chase says highlights the potential for increased institutional demand in coming years.
  
• Microstrategy (a publicly traded company) dumped their entire corporate cash reserves into Bitcoin in March of 2019 at a price of $4,000 per Bitcoin. They now hold over 72,000 Bitcoin and just finished an additional $1 billion bond placement to buy more Bitcoin.AND THEY JUST KEEP BUYING!!
• BlackRock ($8.676 trillion USD under management) has started to 'dabble' in Bitcoin.
  

Feel free to add to my list of good news in the comments.

With all of this unaccounted for in my projections that I made last year, it turns out that I may have underestimated by an order of magnitude.

So here's an update:

• I've now plotted the 2013 and 2017 bull runs on the chart as the red and green bars patterns, respectively.
  
• I optimistically drew a curve (in purple) that splits the difference between them, and we are miles ahead of it.
  
• A 2013 beating increase is denoted in teal, and we were ahead of it for a while, and may reapproach it.
  
• The white curve is, as near as I can tell, the current trajectory. I first drew the white line when we fell out of the teal trajectory on February 25th. At the time, I had every intention of redrawing it regularly as circumstances dictated. So far I haven't had to redraw it yet.
  

My new motto is:
*LEO DICAPRIO WITH ARMS EXTENDED*
I'M NEITHER FUCKING SELLING NOR REDRAWING THE WHITE LINE!!

Is this hopelessly bulltarded and unrealistic? Maybe. On the other hand, hyperbitcoinization might realistically be on the table.

11 мар. 2021 г.

Заметка

Damn typo. Microstrategy made their initial buy in March of 2020, not 2019.

For some reason it still feels like 2020 never happened and last year is still 2019.