IS THE BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE STILL HAPPENING?

1 июн. 2022 г.

Dear Traders and Hopeaholics alike,

Those that have followed me for a while, will know BEAR TEARS are one of my favourite things, unfortunately... after 9 consecutive red candles, it has been a while since we have truly experienced them. I'd like to welcome you to the HOTEL CALIFORNIA, which is such a lovely place where you can check out, but never leave... so that's the reason you're still here!

I am the self-proclaimed President and Founder of HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS (or HA for short), and as I escape the Bitcoin bulls slaughterhouse and as the bears laugh... I'd like to remind you, that so far my long-term charts are all VERY ACCURATE... While many of you are waiting to BUY the 20K region, I am going to tell you why, you might just want to start buying now.

The PITCHFORK CHART ABOVE and the same chart on a MONTHLY TIMEFRAME shows only a wick breaking out



The GLOBAL MARKETS are facing the effects of quantitative tightening with the (USA) FED decreasing the liquidity within the economy, reducing financial assets on its balance sheet by selling them into financial markets or writing them off. On the chart above I show how after each BITCOIN HALVING, within 18months we had reached a new high, with this came an increase in inflation and quantitative easing turned to quantitative tightening, which at each point has seen a new low or bottom.

THE PATTERN TO DATE

After each HALVING there has been a strong BULL MARKET providing a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH.
After each BULL MARKET - QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING has been instigated by the USA FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, with world markets following.
Once the BOTTOM has been achieved, there is approximately 1 year to the next BITCOIN HALVING then the BULL MARKET continues for approximately 18months to a new ALL-TIME HIGH, before the cycle commences again.

Chart Above correctly spaced -

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THE TECHNICAL STUFF
Taking current ATH as a corrective ELLIOTT WAVE RUNNING FLAT - we have a complete ABC corrective structure and C WAVE COMPLETED. (in the pattern shown above) - With the 4th wave potentially completed.

GRAND SUPER CYCLE IN ELLIOTT WAVE.
In ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - we are currently in GREATER WAVE 4. (Sub waves may have one last wave to complete but in this pattern would hold this low)

Wave 4: In Elliott Wave Theory, Guidelines

• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates substantially beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat
• Wave C fails to travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence

Fibonacci Ratio Relationship

• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB

Wave 4 - may be complete, or could extend into a complex correction taking the pattern sideways for the remainder of the time needed before the cycle commences again.

ALTERNATE WAVE 4 PATTERN FOR THOSE WAITING ON THE 20K REGION - THIS ONE IS FOR YOU...


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To recap how a SUPERCYCLE IS POSSIBLE...
BITCOIN SUPERCYCLE EXPLAINED

For those that are new to my charts, here is the explanation of why I think this is valid and continues to be so.
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One day... a long long time ago in a faraway land (Australia) there was a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto... now he invented Bitcoin, and gave it a limited supply, of 21million coins, to date about 18.5million have been mined... It is estimated one-third of those mined coins are forever out of circulation, being forgotten about, lost wallets or passwords... but cannot be accessed ever again... There is also increased mining difficulty.

This process has adapted overtime...
On launch, miners received 50 BTC
in 2012 it halved to 25 BTC
then in 2016 again halving to 12.5 BTC
and last year on 11th May 2020 we are now down to a mere 6.25BTC (as of today's writing this that is approximately $300,000.00 USD)
Bitcoin's inflation rate is lowered effectively at the 4year mark, and the algorithmic math difficulty increased, making it harder for the computers to "guess" or "crack" 64-digit hexadecimal numbers (a "hash") this can take trillions of attempts. With this, mining difficulty increased, and it is estimated the last BITCOIN may not be mined until 2140 long after we have all left this Earth or if the network no longer continues to exist.

Post 21 million coins mined - Bitcoin is designed to function as a closed market/economy, with transaction fees similar to taxes. At some stage for long-term survival, these fees will need to be capped or managed.

Why BITCOIN is not a PONZI is the strong demand within the market currently, and with demand we achieve growth.

It is explained from an except https://www.britannica.com/topic/supply
Supply and demand, in economics, is the relationship between the quantity of a commodity that producers wish to sell at various prices and the quantity that consumers wish to buy. It is the main model of price determination used in economic theory. The price of a commodity is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in a market. The resulting price is referred to as the equilibrium price and represents an agreement between producers and consumers of the good. In equilibrium, the quantity of a good supplied by producers equals the quantity demanded by consumers.

So in essence when the demand curve grows the price grows with this, sometimes breaking away with increased high demand. These regions will always be tested (a correction) and then usually continue higher. It is only when this curve is broken the demand is waining that supply becomes abundant, hence causing the price to decrease.

In summary, as long as DEMAND is high and increasing, and Bitcoin SUPPLY which we know is fixed or limited, the price will continue to grow.

Again a more serious post from me, just alerting you to the fact CRYPTOCURRENCY is here to stay, and this is only the beginning!

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When trading, always know you are in control 100% as you are pushing the buttons, and it is YOUR money/cryptocurrency you are trading. BUT let me tell you this... at HOPEAHOLICS ANONYMOUS and in my world... ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

SHOOT FOR THE MOON - EVEN IF YOU MISS YOU'LL LAND AMONG THE STARS, BUT AT THIS STAGE I AGREE WITH ELON AND THINK WE ARE ALL HEADED TO MARS!!!

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If you are unsure of direction or feel you are over trading I have a moto. IF IN DOUBT SIT IT OUT! There is no shame in not being in a trade. Stick to your game plan, wait for a set-up to be confirmed, and ONLY take a trade if it all aligns.

So please I welcome your comments and CONSTRUCTIVE FEEDBACK - ALL HATERS WILL BE FLAGGED AND REPORTED!
And remember, there is NO RIGHT OR WRONG in trading - just money management!

REMEMBER IF YOU ARE PRACTICING SAFE... TRADING ALWAYS USE PROTECTION
(minimize your risk, use a stop loss. Especially in Margin Trades) ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<3 Lisa

DISCLAIMER:

The Legal stuff - I'm not a financial adviser. Just a few quick thoughts - remember you sit at your computer, you push the buttons...

PS make sure you give me a like, that way you get updates as I post them.... :) <3