Bitcoin - Bear or Bull? (BLX)

23 мая 2021 г.

Right now, we're at a moment in the market where some people believe we are entering a new bearish cycle. This is understandable, given that Bitcoin corrected more than 50% from its recent all-time high - something it has not done historically in the middle of a bull market (except the 2013 double bubble). So, what would it look like if Bitcoin were about to enter a new bear market? It wouldn't look great, but it also wouldn't look terrible. Bitcoin price might be limited in the long-term by the BLX log curve (pink on the above chart). But of course we won't know until things have already unfolded. There are indeed levels below that have not been truly tested as support, such as 20k and 13.8k. There's a lot of liquidity down there. It is perfectly plausible for Bitcoin to test those prices. What, fundamentally, would cause this to happen? Perhaps more serious regulation, or perhaps the U.S. debt bubble finally unravels and interest rates skyrocket, causing cash to be more valuable and debt undesirable. Maybe even a digital dollar would play a role. However, these things may ultimately coincide with a Bitcoin top at a later date. I've drawn two scenarios. But maybe we see something in-between.

As for the environmental impact of Bitcoin - if that had been the true reason for the price decline, we'd see greener cryptocurrencies taking over market share. Some got a momentary boost from Elon's Tweet (like NANO), but market particpants are actually now selling their alts for more Bitcoin, not the other way around. We are not seeing a new rotation into "greener" cryptocurrencies right now. This had already been occurring anyway, with Bitcoin dominance on a decline since the beginning of the year. This correction is technical in nature, and needed to happen.

Looking at the Coinbase chart, you can see that Bitcoin was rejected from the ascending resistance line created in 2015.

This could be a bearish development, but it appears there is limited downside, with support around 20k currently. This chart might provide a more clear map of how the rest of this cycle will unfold, due to the recency and accessibility of these trendlines. Depending on your bias, it seems just as reasonable to expect Bitcoin to break 200k this cycle (and $120-30k on the next move up), as I've drawn on my Coinbase chart. Putting it in perspective, Bitcoin essentially went over 6x from 10k with hardly any consolidation. Sure, there were a couple of corrections, but nothing compared to the correction we're seeing now. The good news is, the long term chart looks healthier with this current retrace.

Despite the selloff, Bitcoin is hanging onto the 9 month EMA (orange on the chart below), which has historically held prices during bull markets. A close below at the end of May could signal that Bitcoin is about to retest some lower levels, but there is no reason to assume that just yet.

The sell pressure is pretty large (still a lot of inflows to exchanges), yet it seems institutions bought the dip. It could take some time for prices to find their footing. Altcoins look far worse, many having already dropped 70% or more. But again, this is not out of the ordinary for a bull market. Many alts are simply retesting their bullish channels. Further price decline could send ETH back to $1400, so it's important to temper expectations. But still, there is definitely a bullish argument to be made.

Many people (like myself), who have been in since the last bear market are starting to question the market here. After all, we remember very well how long things took to recover, and how deep some of the losses became. This could be a sign that we are near at least a short-term bottom. I still want to see some higher buy volume occurring, and some shorter-term moving averages reclaimed as support. Once shorter term MA's are reclaimed, and buyer volume increases, it would lead me to believe that buyers are in control again on shorter timeframes. Still, sellers seem to be in control. On the Binance chart, you can see how Bitcoin has been unable to hold above the 100 hour MA (yellow) since prices were above 57k. Currently, it is serving as EXTREMELY strong resistance. If it's broken to the upside, I want to see buyers start to regain confidence, but many are still understandably shaken by this drop.

That's it, and will likely bit it from me for a while - at least until the market chooses a direction. Time to let things unfold. As I've mentioned, I took my initial risk out a while ago. I was hoping for some higher prices to reduce some positions, but admit I got greedy and should have trimmed a little when Ethereum was above 4K and VET above $0.20 (two of my main long term targets had been reached). It's all a learning experience! Looking forward to continue learning from this market and (hopefully) building some wealth in the longer term. This is not financial advice. Clearly I can be wrong. This is for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra

23 мая 2021 г.

Заметка

Let's see if the pink trendline on Bitstamp holds

23 мая 2021 г.

Заметка

If the trendline doesn't hold, we can see the $19-20k liquidity level tested, if only briefly. So let's see.