$64 Million Question P2 - Where Are We In The 4 Year Cycle?

18 февр. 2020 г.

This corrects mistakes I made in part 1.

There are 4 stages to the cycle (bull, superbull, dump, flat). Graphing them out shows that the 4 year cycle defined by the halfing pattern is possibly decelerating.

Also in the previous post I made the mistake that this is a FLAT year, it is actually a BULL year.

In the middle of the chart it's easy to see the 4 year cycle. When BTC first started it is actually hard to tell where one cycle began and ended, the cycles were probably going much faster than 4 years. It looks like the cycles' lengths could be increasing by 15% each time or 6 months, going 3.5 years, 4, and now maybe 4.5. I think the halfing effect is going to become less important as time goes on.

Here is the price data which is snapped to year starts and doesn't take into account the faster cycle at the start but corrects the mistake I had in the previous post of being shifted by a year:

Year Open price Increase Stage End Of Year Trade

2012 5 BULL Buy
2013 13 289% SUPERBULL Sell
2014 732 5529% DUMP Buy
2015 321 44% FLAT Buy
2016 431 134% BULL Buy
2017 963 223% SUPERBULL Sell
2018 13,880 1441% DUMP Buy
2019 3,693 27% FLAT Buy
2020 7,160 194% BULL Buy
2021 16,002 223% SUPERBULL Sell
2022 230,641 1441% DUMP Buy
2023 61,366 27% FLAT Buy
2024 118,976 194% BULL Buy
2025 265,901 223% SUPERBULL Sell
2026 3,832,505 1441% DUMP Buy
2027 1,019,700 27% FLAT Buy
2028 1,976,998 194% BULL Buy
2029 4,418,411 223% SUPERBULL Sell
2030 63,683,847 1441% DUMP Buy

So how to actually trade this? My plan is almost still the same, I am expecting a parabolic run up before the halfing. I intend to sell as close to the top of that run as possible and then buy in again when it looks like the miners have dumped their holdings and have sent price down quite a lot. The position I get from that might be something to hold all the way to the end of 2021 (not the end of 2022).

We could definitely see 100k BTC during the next superbull phase.