Multi-Year BTC Projection | Technical + Fundamental

23 февр. 2021 г.

I have outlined a few different trajectories BTC can take in the coming years. Currently, it is still very bullish, and dips should be bought at low points with accompanying tight SL. Color of arrows indicate a changing sentiment when price starts trading around those areas.

In the short-term:

1) Its likely BTC can reach 75k, then expect:

A. Retracement to around to 38k and then continuation to 110k. If volatility is strong enough (with recent institutional and private company balance sheet conversions), then price can bull run up to 240k (top orange arrow).

B. Red arrows: Or it can continue from 75k to 110k, due for a retrace to 48k.
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2) After retrace to 38k - 48K, price can flirt with breaking dynamic support, to adhere to a much larger parabolic pattern that encompasses the inception of BTC (from $0.05). This is a likely scenario due to the worldwide popularity that has surrounded BTC. There is more liquidity (rising market value), an influx of more complex securities offerings involving crypto (CFDs, margin, index creation, 401K diversifications), and worldwide government legislative actions can all act to bring more liquidity into the market, therefor reducing volatility and reducing the subsequent volatile price swings that have been a staple of BTC since it's beginning. Expect either of these scenarios, or a combination:

A. Following orange arrows: price can retrace to 20k, attempt to retest at 75k - 110k, then come back down to 33k for a decision making time.

B. Purple arrow: Due to volatility of BTC, price can follow purple arrow and do a direct dive to $3,200 (less likely).

C. At the end of the orange trajectory: price can make two decisions; follow the green arrow to break into 167k+ range, up to 235k OR even go into volatile bull run up to 450k bull run (green arrow following orange arrows). Or it can make a decision to go into D trajectory,

D. Following the teal arrows: price will adhere to larger parabolic pattern and retrace to $3,200 (more likely with added government regulation + global economies begin to recover after the COVID-19 pandemic comes to a resolution).


Gain Analysis:
Ultimately, this asset has been in a bull run for 10 years, buying at dips and low points with tight SL, allows you to ride the trend, no matter where it ends up. BTC is now classified as the best performing asset in history, accruing a gain of 119,000,000% gain in just 10 years (upwards of 849,000,000% gain if it reaches 425k). One thing to note is the decreasing percentage gains after each impulse wave since BTC inception.

Major Moves-
First: From $0.05 to $32.70 = 63,000% --->
Second: From $32.70 to $1,190 = 3,539% --->
Third: From $1,190 to $19,126 = 1,507% --->

Following this pattern (excluding the initial 63,000% outlier), we can forecast a resistance from $19,126. We can expect a 463% - 500% gain following the gain percentage reduction trend. This paints the next resistance at $107,679 - 114k; this coincides with a hit at the top of the purple parabolic pattern.

This chart will be updated when more price action becomes available.