(BTC.D) Altcoin Dominance Eyeing Up A Breakout to 40%

21 янв. 2020 г.

With altcoin dominance closing back above the rising 200 Week MA last week, confirming Bitcoin's long-term weakness in market dominance, "ALT.D" (1-BTC.D+99) has again held the 30% support a second time and is looking for a breakout above 33.75% with a target to 40%.

This would additionally be a TD Sequential trade on the Weekly chart with a Green 2 going above a Green 1, with oscillators (RSI, CMF and MACD) pointing to further upside. There will likely be some resistance and profit taking around the 50 Week MA around 35%, half way to the target, but I don't expect it to hold for long if volume continues to rise. The momentum would likely be too strong preceeding the confirmed trend change.

Reward/risk: 2.1
Entry: 33.76% - TD buy signal and and new swing high since July 2019
Target: 40.7% - Previous support level as resistance and 100 Week MA confluence
Stop Loss: 30.50% - Breakdown below the open of the 1 candle, 21 Week MA and into support range = bearish

To me, this is a perfect trade.

Previous altcoin dominance TA:

Altcoin Speculation Coming Soon... (October 2019)

Altcoin Dominance Bouncing From 0.382 Fib Retracement (September 2019)

22 янв. 2020 г.

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Just noticed the CMF is also at the same "critical levels", a move above 0.15 would result in the same buying pressure as in 2017 & 2018 periods. This is why I also wouldn't be surprised to also see altcoin dominance rejected at current levels rather than breakout, hence waiting for a breakout before longing any more alts. While probability points to further upside, if sellers get dominance rejected where it is now, it would be result in rejection from the neutral/bullish rsi and critical cmf levels, as well as look like a macd fakeout. This would also be very reminiscent of June/July 2016, where there was nice bounce, followed by another 6 months of consolidation, so wouldn't be out the ordinary either.



(Source bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53671778

23 янв. 2020 г.

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50 & 200 Day Golden Cross on Daily chart, confirming bullish confluence with Weekly perspective:



Last seen February 3rd 2019 before dominance rallied 9.4% from confirmation to peak:



If early 2019 bullish move repeats itself, this would take dominance to 42%, the previous support and breakdown level that should now act as strong resistance.

23 янв. 2020 г.

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For more info on this TI Sequential indicator, see here:
tonevays.com/indicator

27 янв. 2020 г.

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Altcoin dominance looks like it wants to pop upwards 5.35% (measured move) from Daily ascending triangle. Currently poking at resistance:

29 янв. 2020 г.

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A look from the BTC.D perspective...

As expected, dominance is getting rejected at this "tri-point" (confluence) of resistance; VPVR PoC, logirthimic support turned resistance and again the 200 Week MA. Very bearish.



4hr descending triangle previously referenced has been invalidated, however a new bearish channel is forming (within the longer-term bearish channel). Still bearish:



Souce: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53729788

3 февр. 2020 г.

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ALT.D Weekly time-frame

Altcoin dominance trade cancelled as Green 3 failed to move above the Green 2 for the ideal sequential trade (*). Now we are on a Green 4, which while is still bullish, isn't the perfect TD trade that I was looking to execute (as this could end up being 1-4 candle correction, as opposed to a 1-9 sequential count).

Will now look to target the 200 Week MA support levels, if the mid-level of the bull channel holds as support.

Note; I'm still in longs from Sept/Oct 2019, but not intending to open any new altcoin trades on a breakout above previous highs, based on the Weekly chart at least (the Daily/4hr is very different story, see below).

[Note: On the chart below it shows dominance making a new yearly high (33.76%), however, the actual BTC.D dominance chart failed to make new yearly lows (now at 66.07% due to cmc recalculations). Reminder: Always check the live charts before executing any trades. Do not follow trade me, no refunds.]

BTC.D on a Daily time-frame

[img width=1000][/img]

Still within bearish channel, as a bear flag, with around a -3% measured move.
TD sequential bearish Red 3 (moving below Red 2 would active a short trade)
RSI bearish at 32, close to oversold conditions <30.
CMF neutral, declining slightly so slightly bearish
MACD bear-crossing today, confirmation on close:



Source: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53762404

3 февр. 2020 г.

Заявка отменена

Summary: Weekly trade cancelled, will look for 200 Week MA support retest.
Waiting to see how the bearish Daily chart plays out to take that trade instead.

9 февр. 2020 г.

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Would of been an aright trade after all on Daily time-frames, but now anticipating the correcting: