Breaking out the longterm down trend?

In addition to my last chart I found it interesting to chart BTCCNY/USDCNH to rule out the possibility that the strength/weakness of the Chinese Yuan would interfere with the chart.
We can see on this chart the last low of the bitcoin price came VERY near the longterm up channel. We didn't break out the longterm down channel (yet), so I expect the price to go down a bit before testing the longterm up or longterm down channel again.
I don't however see us make a new low again. The reaction after touching the longterm up trend makes me believe we have a greater chance breaking the downterm trend instead of the longterm up trend.

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