Ready or not?!?

25 июл. 2015 г.

Hi guys,

First, my apologies that I've been away for a while. I've been so busy with my studie and moving to a new room. Now when it's vacation I finally can spend the time on my passion: charting and trading. I'm following a pattern since may of 2015. My explanation might be a bit hard to follow because I'll mention some fractal and some (normal) pattern analysis. If you have any question feel free to ask.

Lot's of you know that I always like to do some fractal analysis after I found a pattern, just to confirm if my pattern matches the fractal outcome. I like to give more information about pattens I've fount and can help you guys whenever needed. In this article I'll mention the last cycle from the end of 2013 (cycle 2) and the cycle before that; starts in 2013 and ended in October 2013 (cycle 1). Since that doesn't fit in this chart I would like you to zoom in @ the cycle I mention.

So for now lets start from the beginning, uhhh I mean let's take a look @ out the pattern appeared a few months ago. this pattern is called an ascending triangle. Normally an ascending triangle means a phase of consolidation, after that the upwards breakout is incoming. The most of the time we'll see that the trend line touches the resistance line 3 or 4 times before breaking out. (in this case the red line)

I'm not that good at finding out how long everything is gonna take so let's say that the breakout is gonna happen @ the end/beginning of 2015. (if someone knows how to calculate the breaking point, please tell me, :) I never get my finger on it) When we break trough the red line for 1,5 day's, we can calculate the target: base + breakout point.

BASE: 1900 - 1150 (to be safe take a bit higher point) = 750
BREAKOUT POINT = 1900 +
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Target = 2650

So no we've calculated the target based on one pattern. But make sure that the resistance line will be broken for 1,5 days before buying in. To make sure we're right look for some resistance points @ around 2650 that can confirm this target. Ok after this let's look @ the bigger picture, zoom out to the last cycle that started in +/- december 2013 (cycle 2). The brown lines show a falling wedge. The most of the times a falling wedge appears after a big increase. After the consolidation (wedge) the trend made enough momentum to go up again. We're seeing the momentum building from the beginning of 2015 which is a very good sign. (red line on the RSI) But keep in mind that before we reach the top of the faling wedge again (7500), it will take the same time as the wedge did while faling down before breaking out.

The faling wedge broke out in march of 2015, which means a target could be calculated. The formula is the same one as for the ascending triangle: base + breakout point.

BASE: 5800 - 3050 = 2750 (to be safe I choose the lowest brown line)
BREAKOUT POINT = 1600 +
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4350

Which mean were gonna have big resistance @ 4350 CNY. So now you might wonder why I drew that red line and the orange line. I'll tell you a little later, first we're gonna scroll back to the cycle from the beginning of 2013. I love to do fractal analysis so take a good look and watch colsely if you see somethings that are the same. Bitcoin is build on algorithm ass well as it's charts and it's rally. The more money, the longer it takes to move the price with the same amount of dollars. That's why cycle 2 takes so much longer than cycle 1. Take a look @ the chart from march 2013 until nog 2013. And what do we see, a falling wedge & an ascending triangle just like in cycle 2.

Description is to long, look @ the reactions below