#BTC - How To Trade Todays Inflation Data!

14 авг.

Technicals
From a technical standpoint the Bull Market Support Band (20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA)) is overhead resistance that needs to be cleared if we are to re-enter an uptrend.

Not alot in the technicals to suggest that we can break above so the next move is pretty much entirely down to the CPI data dropping in about 5 hours.

Macro
Inflation data has taken on extra importance after the poor employment data (and the struggles of the Japanese economy) made a recession likely.

We desperately need to see inflation coming down ahead of rate cuts in September. High inflation means high interest rates which makes markets illiquid (all the cash is tied up in safe assets like bonds). When the rates fall market liquidity increases and demand for risk assets like BTC increases.

The core inflation forecast is that inflation comes down to 3.2% from 3.3% last month. That would be bullish but it's also unlikely to really surprise the markets.

Anything over 3.2% is very bearish.

Core Inflation Rate
3.2% (Forecast) - Priced in
>3.2% - Bearish
<3.2% - Bullish

Wait for confirmation before trading, any movement before the announcement can be misleading and be designed to pull traders in.

Targets
Overhead resistance (assuming we break the BMSB) is at 64K so thats a good long target if Inflation comes in low.

If inflation is high support at 58.5k is in play. If that breaks 55.7k is next.

Let us know what you think!