Bitcoin : Buy the Fear & Sell The Greed

19 янв. 2022 г.

Bitcoin lately has been testing Patience of many traders and making holding longs way more fearful for many Traders.
I would like to Represent "The CONTRARIAN VIEW" for BTC in this Analysis.

--------------------- TWO BASIC GOLDEN MANTRA's in TRADING ---------------------

Before starting anything, I would like to discuss Two Concepts in Trading that are like Golden Mantra's or Golden Rules of Success in Trading. Those are :-

>>>>>> Buy Low, Sell High <<<<<<
OR
>>>>>> Sell High, Buy Low <<<<<<

Although, These concepts seem very simple & easy to interpret; But, These "BASIC" concepts are "EXTREMELY" hard to execute.

Some call them luck, Some call them Skill.
Some call them... Probabilities.

------------------ Social Sentiment & "BUY THE FEAR" View Explained ---------------

1) If we look at Social Sentiment & Market Sentiment, it has been bearish for last 3-4 weeks now.
From last few days, Majority of the Retailers have turned "BEARISH". & They are looking forward to sell the Rallies at this point.

2) Please Ask yourself a Question, Would whales short at this point ?
Probability is very Less that at Such good Support Level Whales would Sell their BTC and SHORT BTC.

3) Using Fear & Greed index, It can be observed that We are currently Sitting on EXTREME FEAR in Crypto Market.
So, IS IT "NOT" Supporting One of the CONCEPT GOLDEN MANTRA OF TRADING, Buy Low & Sell High ?
Also, Isn't it very LOW RISK at this level to go Long ?

---------------- My Reasons to be Bullish on BTC & Crypto Market for Short to Mid Term ------------------

1) Double Bottom :


2) 2-Day Timeframe Bullish Divergence :


3) 4-Hour Timeframe Bullish Divergence :


4) Not so Good looking Falling Wedge :-


5) Hourly Timeframe Demand Zone Retesting :


6) 8-Hour Timeframe Look on BTC :



Considering all of these Abovementioned Reasons, I, personally, am long on BTC & Crypto for SHORT-to-MID-Term.

However, if i am wrong, and then for me, Invalidation Point is 39.5-40k :


This by no means is a financial advice. This is just my personal view and despite i am right or wrong, Trading is a game of Possibilities and Probabilities.
Thus, my view is Bullish for BTC for now and for upcoming few weeks.
Market likes to teach us a new Lesson everyday. So, i am happy to be wrong if that is the case.

Rest, enjoy everyone & Trade Safely.

19 янв. 2022 г.

Заметка

I would like to add CRUCIAL Points which i didn't check thoroughly before posting :-

Stock market, thanks to FED and Jerome Powell, is on SELL-OFF SPREE.
As you can see in Futures market, Stock market is BLEEDING.
It is causing HAVOC in Crypto Market as well.



I am watching 200-Day EMA of S&P 500 Futures, ES1. First of all, ES1 Should bounce off from Shown Demand Zone. I am HOPING that it won't go below that.

Also, TNX, 10YR Bond Yield has shot up agressively :-


Bitcoin is still holding up this 40-42k area pretty well.
But, use of Tight Stop Losses is def recommended at this point.

One More thing before going,
Compromising 39.5 to 40k level will be really bad for BTC.
It will cause MASSIVE Liquidations. Thus, Cascade selling MIGHT Occur.
Therefore, a Massive Dump would follow putting BTC into a Bear market IMO.
This will CONFIRM the MASSIVE Head & Shoulders.



Be Safe. Trade Safely.
Risk Management is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, especially in these times.

19 янв. 2022 г.

Заметка

Adding one more thing to this post,

Yes, i am also feeling the fear in my stomach.
But, due to good position sizing and risk management, at such low levels, i would rather be A Contrarian and stomach this fear and believe in idea.
I would like to mention one thing :-
I post what i see. I do have clearly stated my Reasoning.

I would appreciate any Counter opinion or any feedback at all.

REMEMBER this as well :-
There is Always a Dawn coming and warm day is on its way, waiting for the first ray of hope and shine from the SUN, after a long and difficult cold night.